Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?

Total Volume

$56.24K

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How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?

Vol

$56.24K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $56.24K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

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Volume DistributionTotal: $56.24K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 500 as of October 31, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 500 as of October 31, 2027?	Kalshi	86%
Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 600 as of October 31, 2027?	Kalshi	81%
Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 700 as of October 31, 2027?	Kalshi	78%
Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 800 as of October 31, 2027?	Kalshi	78%
Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 900 as of October 31, 2027?	Kalshi	55%
Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 1000 as of October 31, 2027?	Kalshi	41%
Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 1100 as of October 31, 2027?	Kalshi	22%
Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 1200 as of October 31, 2027?	Kalshi	10%
Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 1300 as of October 31, 2027?	Kalshi	7%
Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 1400 as of October 31, 2027?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

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86%

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$56.24K

Volume

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About This Event

as of October 31, 2027 If the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call is above X as of October 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** as of October 31, 2027

If the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call is above X as of October 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call is above 1,400 as of October 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $56.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 1400 as of October 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 29, 2028): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 1300 as of October 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 29, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 1200 as of October 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 29, 2028): Vol $4
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 900 as of October 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 29, 2028): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 800 as of October 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 29, 2028): Vol $6.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 700 as of October 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 29, 2028): Vol $8.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 78.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 600 as of October 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 29, 2028): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 80.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 500 as of October 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 29, 2028): Vol $26.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 1100 as of October 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 29, 2028): Vol $7.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 1000 as of October 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 29, 2028): Vol $878
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?

Volume$56.24K

Markets10

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KALSHI

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 500 as of October 31, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.0¢No 14.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 500 as of October 31, 2027?

If the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call is above 500 as of October 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 600 as of October 31, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.5¢No 19.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 600 as of October 31, 2027?

If the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call is above 600 as of October 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 700 as of October 31, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.0¢No 22.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 700 as of October 31, 2027?

If the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call is above 700 as of October 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 800 as of October 31, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 800 as of October 31, 2027?

If the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call is above 800 as of October 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 900 as of October 31, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 54.5¢No 45.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 900 as of October 31, 2027?

If the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call is above 900 as of October 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?

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Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 500 as of October 31, 2027?

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Events (1)

How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?

Markets (10)

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 500 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 500 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 600 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 600 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 700 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 700 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 800 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 800 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 900 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 900 as of October 31, 2027?

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Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 500 as of October 31, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 500 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 500 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 600 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 600 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 700 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 700 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 800 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 800 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 900 as of October 31, 2027?

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 900 as of October 31, 2027?

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