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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

Name: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.58M

Events

Markets

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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

Vol

$1.58M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.58M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.58M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	Poly	84%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Poly	0%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	Poly	0%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

84%

Top Probability

$1.58M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An explosion is defined as "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $556.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $22.5K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 24.76)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $290
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $251.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $249.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $55.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETCulture

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12.

Volume$1.58M

Markets4

4 of 4

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POLYMARKET

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 83.5¢No 16.5¢

POLYMARKETCulture

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as

POLYMARKET

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢

POLYMARKETCulture

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be

POLYMARKET

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢

POLYMARKETCulture

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and suppo

POLYMARKET

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢

POLYMARKETCulture

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?

If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.co

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

21¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/MhS09j" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12"></iframe>

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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

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Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

Markets (4)

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?

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Discussion

Market Insights

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Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

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