Name: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 | PredictPedia

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Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	Poly	64%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?	Poly	63%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?	Poly	19%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	Poly	17%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Poly	1%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An explosion is defined as "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $230.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.6K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 35.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $38.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $17.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $165.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $420
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

15d 17h remaining

Jan 31, 2026 12:00 AM

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Average Yes Price

33¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/MhS09j" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12"></iframe>

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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

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Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

Markets (5)

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

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Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

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