$21.52K
1
10
$21.52K
1
10
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_cur
Prediction markets on Polymarket are pricing in a high probability that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach or exceed 4.3% before the end of 2026. The leading contract for this outcome is trading at approximately 91 cents, implying a 91% chance. This near-90% probability suggests the market views a move to this yield level as very likely, though not completely assured. The market resolves based on the U.S. Treasury Department's published daily par yield, with a window from November 2025 through December 2026.
Two primary macroeconomic forces are driving this consensus. First, persistent inflationary pressures and a resilient U.S. economy have led markets to price in a "higher for longer" interest rate path from the Federal Reserve. The 10-year yield, a benchmark for global borrowing costs, is heavily influenced by expectations for Fed policy and long-term inflation. Second, significant federal deficit spending is increasing Treasury supply, which can put upward pressure on yields as the market absorbs more debt. The current yield hovering near 4.3% itself reduces the barrier for this prediction, making a touch or breach of that level a proximate event.
The primary risk to this high-confidence bet is a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown. If upcoming inflation data, like the CPI reports, show a sustained return toward the Fed's 2% target, it could prompt expectations for earlier or deeper rate cuts, pulling long-term yields down. Conversely, odds could move even higher if inflation reaccelerates, forcing the Fed to signal further tightening. Key catalysts will be the Fed's policy meetings and quarterly refunding announcements from the Treasury, which detail the government's borrowing plans. A shift in the political landscape affecting fiscal policy after the 2024 election could also alter the long-term yield trajectory.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note will reach or exceed specific threshold levels between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield is a cornerstone benchmark for global finance, influencing everything from mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs to currency valuations and stock market performance. Its level reflects market expectations for long-term economic growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve monetary policy. The resolution will be determined using the official 'Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates' published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, specifically the '10 Yr' column. Recent interest has surged due to persistent inflation, aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, and substantial U.S. government debt issuance, all of which exert upward pressure on yields. Market participants, including institutional investors, pension funds, and policymakers, are closely monitoring this metric as a barometer for the economic outlook and financial stability through the mid-2020s.
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic shifts over decades, defining different financial eras. The yield peaked at an all-time high of 15.84% in September 1981, during the Federal Reserve's aggressive battle against stagflation under Chairman Paul Volcker. This inaugurated a nearly 40-year secular bull market in bonds, with yields trending generally lower, hitting a record closing low of 0.52% in August 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic panic and massive central bank stimulus. This long decline was fueled by disinflation, globalization, and demographic trends that increased demand for safe assets. The period from 2009 to 2021 was often called the 'low-for-long' or 'lower-for-longer' era, where yields remained historically depressed despite economic recovery, challenging traditional financial models. The current environment, beginning in 2022, represents a potential regime shift. The rapid rise in yields that year, from around 1.5% to over 4%, was the steepest annual increase since at least the 1960s, breaking the long-term downtrend and forcing a reevaluation of the equilibrium level for long-term interest rates.
The level of the 10-year Treasury yield has profound and wide-ranging consequences for the global economy. It serves as the foundational 'risk-free' rate upon which nearly all other assets are priced. A sustained higher yield increases borrowing costs for governments, corporations, and households, potentially slowing economic growth, cooling the housing market via higher mortgage rates, and increasing the federal government's interest expense on its $34 trillion debt. For financial markets, higher yields can trigger valuation reassessments for stocks, particularly growth-oriented technology companies, and cause stress in other interest-rate-sensitive sectors like commercial real estate. Conversely, investors and pension funds reliant on fixed income for steady returns may welcome higher yields after years of meager income. The yield's path is therefore a key variable in determining the cost of capital, investment decisions, and overall financial conditions for years to come, affecting everyone from retirees to multinational corporations.
As of late 2024, the 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated compared to the pre-2022 era, fluctuating in a range roughly between 4.0% and 4.5%. This reflects market digestion of persistent, though cooling, inflation data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer than previously anticipated. The yield curve, which had been deeply inverted, is showing signs of beginning to normalize as short-term rate cut expectations are pushed further into the future. Recent Treasury auctions have seen varying demand, with attention focused on who is buying U.S. debt amid reduced purchases from the Federal Reserve (quantitative tightening) and some foreign central banks.
The yield rises primarily due to expectations of higher inflation, stronger economic growth, increased supply of Treasury bonds from government borrowing, or anticipation that the Federal Reserve will raise or maintain higher short-term interest rates. It represents the compensation investors demand for lending money to the U.S. government for a decade.
Higher yields can negatively impact stock valuations, particularly for growth stocks, because they increase the discount rate used in valuation models. They also make bonds a more competitive investment relative to stocks. Conversely, lower yields tend to support higher equity valuations by reducing the appeal of fixed-income alternatives.
The yield is not set by any single entity. It is determined by the secondary market where Treasury bonds are traded among investors. The price discovered in these daily auctions and continuous trading establishes the yield. Key influencers include the Federal Reserve's policy, the Treasury's debt issuance, and the collective expectations of global investors.
For a specific Treasury note, the 'interest rate' or coupon is fixed when the bond is issued. The 'yield' fluctuates daily based on the bond's changing market price. If the price falls, the yield rises, and vice versa. The market yield reflects current economic conditions, while the coupon reflects conditions at the time of issuance.
It is viewed as the premier 'risk-free' rate for a 10-year horizon in U.S. dollars. Because U.S. Treasury debt is considered free of default risk, its yield forms the baseline for pricing nearly all other long-term debt, from corporate bonds to mortgages, and is a key input for financial models worldwide.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
10 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 88% |
| Poly | 56% |
| Poly | 34% |
 | Poly | 23% |
 | Poly | 13% |
 | Poly | 11% |
 | Poly | 7% |
 | Poly | 5% |
 | Poly | 5% |
 | Poly | 4% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/MldEZM" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?"></iframe>