Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?

Name: Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$13.07K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?

Vol

$13.07K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $13.07K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.07K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$13.07K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abiy Ahmed ceases to be Prime Minister of Ethiopia for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Abiy Ahmed's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified po

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (82 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abiy Ahmed ceases to be Prime Minister of Ethiopia for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Abiy Ahmed's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified po

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abiy Ahmed ceases to be Prime Minister of Ethiopia for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Abiy Ahmed's resignation/removal before this market's end date w"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $15.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.83)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $13.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics