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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Major US official out by May 31?

Name: Major US official out by May 31?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.70K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Major US official out by May 31?

Vol

$1.70K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.70K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.70K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Major US official out by May 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Major US official out by May 31?	Poly	62%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

62%

Top Probability

$1.70K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The included positions are: - President of the United States - Vice-President of the United States - United States Cabinet Member - United States Senator - U.S. Representative - Governor of

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Major US official out by May 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The included positions are: 
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $21.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.08)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Major US official out by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 62.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics