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Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Name: Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$273.39

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Vol

$273.39

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $273.39

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $273.39

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

14 markets tracked

Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	51%
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	50%
Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	33%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	17%
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	11%
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	10%
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	9%
Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	9%
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	8%
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	8%
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	8%
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	8%
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	7%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$273.39

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (174 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."


**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderb"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $273
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $80
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $13
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech