GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Name: Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$144.99K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Vol

$144.99K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $144.99K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $144.99K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

14 markets tracked

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	34%
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	23%
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	13%
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	12%
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	11%
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	11%
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	9%
Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	8%
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	7%
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	6%
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	5%
Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

34%

Top Probability

$144.99K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, October 8, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (85 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."


**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderb"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $145.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $89.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.62)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $18.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $28.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $10.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $5.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $10.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $23.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $15.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech