Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Name: Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$26.94M

Events

Markets

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Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

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Polymarket

markets · $26.94M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $26.94M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	Poly	21%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

21%

Top Probability

$26.94M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $26.94M
* **Total Liquidity:** $636.5K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 42.33)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $26.94M
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

15d 20h remaining

Jan 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

21¢

Polymarket

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/N5uNZ3" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?"></iframe>

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Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

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Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)