Market snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

NZ Election: National Party # of seats?

Reported volume

PM $24.0K

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NZ Election: National Party # of seats?

Vol

PM $24.0K

Events

Markets

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Current odds

Snapshot from Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 40-44 at 33.5%.

Polymarket

40-4433.5%
35-3933%
30-3432.5%
25-299.3%
<255.9%

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Price ChartContract price history

7 markets tracked

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Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Poly	33.5%
Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Poly	33.0%
Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Poly	32.5%
Will the National Party win 25-29 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Poly	9.3%
Will the National Party win fewer than 25 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Poly	5.9%
Will the National Party win 50 or more seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Poly	4.3%
Will the National Party win 45-49 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Poly	0.3%

Rules & Resolution

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AI Analysis

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PM $24.0K

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

About This Event

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: NZ Election: National Party # of seats?
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $24.0K
Coverage: 7 of 7 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the National Party win fewer than 25 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2116887; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-national-party-win-fewer-than-25-seats-in-the-new-zealand-house-of-representatives-in-the-2026-new-zealand-legislative-election
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.3K
Outcome Yes: 5.9%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 94.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Contract: Will the National Party win 25-29 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2116888; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-national-party-win-25-29-seats-in-the-new-zealand-house-of-representatives-in-the-2026-new-zealand-legislative-election
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.4K
Outcome Yes: 9.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.6%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Contract: Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2116889; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-national-party-win-30-34-seats-in-the-new-zealand-house-of-representatives-in-the-2026-new-zealand-legislative-election
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $7.2K
Outcome Yes: 32.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 67.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Contract: Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2116890; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-national-party-win-35-39-seats-in-the-new-zealand-house-of-representatives-in-the-2026-new-zealand-legislative-election
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $5.6K
Outcome Yes: 33.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 67.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Contract: Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2116891; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-national-party-win-40-44-seats-in-the-new-zealand-house-of-representatives-in-the-2026-new-zealand-legislative-election
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $6.6K
Outcome Yes: 33.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 66.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Contract: Will the National Party win 45-49 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2116892; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-national-party-win-45-49-seats-in-the-new-zealand-house-of-representatives-in-the-2026-new-zealand-legislative-election
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $980.82
Outcome Yes: 0.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Contract: Will the National Party win 50 or more seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2116893; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-national-party-win-50-or-more-seats-in-the-new-zealand-house-of-representatives-in-the-2026-new-zealand-legislative-election
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.0K
Outcome Yes: 4.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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POLYMARKETPolitics