Snapshot observed 2026-11-03T21:00:06.031Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This snapshot covers a set of Kalshi markets tied to the Dallas vs Indianapolis game, which the source describes as "originally scheduled for Nov 8, 2026" [1]. Each market is a yes or no question about the margin of victory at a specific threshold. The titles are phrased as "Dallas wins by over" a given number of points, or "Indianapolis wins by over" a given number [1].

The general rule text in the source is written around Indianapolis: "If Indianapolis wins by more than X points... then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Because the individual market titles name both teams, readers should check the title of each contract rather than assume every market resolves on the same team's result.

The source also states that the market "will close and expire after a winner is declared" [1]. The saved market records list an end date of November 10, 2026 at 18:00 UTC, but the source excerpt itself says "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. Those two details should be read separately.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is November 3, 2026 at 21:00 UTC, and the source was retrieved on November 4, 2026 at 06:21 UTC [1]. These are timestamps for a past snapshot. They do not show live prices, and the prices below should not be treated as current.

The sample is partial. Of 25 markets in this Kalshi event, 12 are included. Markets were selected by Yes price, from highest to lowest, so the omitted 13 markets cannot be assumed to have lower prices or any particular pattern. The included Dallas thresholds show Yes prices of 0.685 at 1.5 points, 0.575 at 3.5 points, 0.475 at 6.5 points, 0.345 at 9.5 points, and 0.255 at 13.5 points. The included Indianapolis contracts show Yes prices of 0.26 at 1.5 points and 0.25 at 2.5 points [1].

These figures are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. A Dallas contract and an Indianapolis contract at different thresholds are separate questions, so their different prices do not indicate an arbitrage opportunity. Because all the markets here come from one provider, no cross-platform comparison is made.

What remains uncertain

The snapshot does not show trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants, so it says nothing about how deep the market is. The source gives no explanation for why prices stand where they do. The excerpt also does not confirm the game's result or any resolution, and it is not a record of what happened after the observation time.

References

1. Kalshi: Dallas vs Indianapolis: Spread. Provider data observed 2026-11-03T21:00:06.031Z.