Dallas vs Indianapolis: 4th Quarter Spread
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Dallas vs Indianapolis: 4th Quarter Spread
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Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 5, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Dallas wins by over 1.5 points at 46.5%.
Kalshi
- Dallas wins by over 1.5 points46.5%
- Dallas wins by over 2.5 points40%
- Dallas wins by over 3.5 points34.5%
- Indianapolis wins by over 2.5 points32%
- Indianapolis wins by over 3.5 points27.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 5, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
DAL vs IND (Nov 8) If Indianapolis wins by more than X points in the 4th Quarter, excluding overtime, of the Dallas vs Indianapolis Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the 4th Quarter, excluding overtime, of play count towards this market. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-03T21:00:06.031Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event "Dallas vs Indianapolis: 4th Quarter Spread" concerns the Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 8, 2026 [1]. Each market asks whether one team wins the fourth quarter by more than a stated number of points. The rules say that only points scored during the 4th Quarter, excluding overtime, count toward the market [1]. A contract such as "Dallas wins 4Q by over 1.5 points?" therefore does not measure the full game margin, and each side and threshold is a separate contract [1].
The rules also state that the market "will close and expire after the event occurs" [1]. The saved market records list an end date of 2026-11-10T18:00:00.000Z, while the source excerpt gives the listed end time as not supplied [1]. That end date is a provider field. It is not an announced game time and does not confirm when or how the market resolves.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-11-03T21:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-11-04T06:20:50Z [1]. They describe that earlier observation, not live trading at the time of reading. These Yes prices are snapshots, not executable quotes.
For Dallas, Yes prices are 0.43 (over 1.5 points), 0.315 (over 2.5), 0.285 (over 3.5), 0.23 (over 6.5), 0.18 (over 7.5), and 0.11 (over 10.5) [1]. For Indianapolis, they are 0.41 (over 2.5), 0.345 (over 3.5), 0.185 (over 6.5), 0.12 (over 7.5), and 0.055 (over 10.5) [1]. Within each side, Yes prices fall as the threshold rises, which matches the wording of the thresholds [1].
The two sides should be read separately. Dallas over 1.5 and Indianapolis over 2.5 are different thresholds on different teams, so their prices should not be averaged or combined. Prices that differ across contracts do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
All 11 saved markets for this event are included, and the record marks the sample as not partial [1]. The sample warning adds that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not record a resolution, a final game result, or the actual listed end time [1]. The snapshot contains prices only. It provides no volume, liquidity, or trader counts, and it does not explain why any price is where it is. Because the observation predates retrieval by about nine hours, the prices may have changed since then.
References
- Kalshi: Dallas vs Indianapolis: 4th Quarter Spread . Provider data observed 2026-11-03T21:00:06.031Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 4, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event on the fourth-quarter scoring margin in a Dallas versus Indianapolis Pro Football game. The event title is "Dallas vs Indianapolis: 4th Quarter Spread" and the listed matchup is DAL vs IND, with the game shown as originally scheduled for November 8 [1]. The event page describes a contract that resolves to Yes if Indianapolis wins the fourth quarter by more than a stated number of points, and it describes a parallel rule for Dallas [1]. Only points scored during the fourth quarter count, and overtime is excluded [1]. The contract therefore measures the margin within one quarter rather than the final score of the game. The saved provider event lists 11 markets, each with a Yes and a No outcome [1]. The thresholds in the saved sample run from 1.5 points to 10.5 points, with separate contracts for each team at several thresholds [1]. Each threshold is its own contract, so a market asking whether Dallas wins the fourth quarter by more than 1.5 points is not the same question as one asking about a 6.5 point margin. The provider states that the market closes and expires after the event occurs [1]. The saved market records carry an end date of November 10, 2026, but the provider page itself lists its end time as not supplied [1]. That date should be read as a stored field, not as an announced event date or a confirmed finish time. The saved prices are snapshots taken at the observation time, not current quotes or verified probabilities. They do not indicate whether a trade could be executed at those levels. The volume figures in the source do not measure liquidity or the number of traders, and differences in price between contracts with different thresholds do not by themselves show an opportunity.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow part of a game: the points scored by one team during the fourth quarter, excluding overtime, compared with a set threshold [1]. Because the rule counts only fourth-quarter points, a team that wins the game overall may still not satisfy a fourth-quarter margin threshold, and the reverse is also possible. Traders and readers can use the saved sample to see how the provider organized the thresholds across both teams. For example, the saved Yes price for Dallas winning the fourth quarter by more than 1.5 points was 0.43, while the saved Yes price for Indianapolis winning the fourth quarter by more than 2.5 points was 0.41 [1]. Those figures compare different thresholds and should not be read as a ranking of which outcome is more likely.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-03 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does overtime count toward the fourth-quarter result?
No. The provider states that only points scored during the 4th Quarter, excluding overtime, count toward the market [1].
When does the market close?
The provider says the market will close and expire after the event occurs [1]. The provider page lists its end time as not supplied, while the saved market records show an end date of November 10, 2026 [1]. That stored date is not an announced event date.
Why do the Dallas and Indianapolis contracts have different prices?
Each contract uses a different point threshold and a different team, so they ask different questions [1]. The saved prices are snapshots from the observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Price differences between these contracts do not establish an arbitrage opportunity.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
