How long will the government shutdown last? | PredictPedia

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15 markets tracked

Will the US government be shut down for at least 65 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the US government be shut down for at least 65 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	99%
Will the US government be shut down for at least 70 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	92%
Will the US government be shut down for at least 75 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	85%
Will the US government be shut down for at least 80 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	77%
Will the US government be shut down for at least 85 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	71%
Will the US government be shut down for at least 90 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	64%
Will the US government be shut down for at least 95 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	56%
Will the US government be shut down for at least 100 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	45%
Will the US government be shut down for more than 110 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	28%
Will the US government be shut down for at least 120 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	18%
Will the US government be shut down for at least 130 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	14%
Will the US government be shut down for at least 140 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	12%
Will the US government be shut down for at least 150 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	11%
Will the US government be shut down for at least 200 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will the US government be shut down for at least 300 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	5%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How long will the government shutdown last?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Through Dec 31, 2026

If the duration of the first US federal government shutdown between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026 due to a lapse of appropriations is at least X days, then the market resolves to Yes. X shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable. Shutdown status is recorded at 10:00 AM ET each day. Partial shutdowns are included. X

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the duration of the first US federal government shutdown between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026 due to a lapse of appropriations is at least 95 days, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally exc"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the US government be shut down for at least 95 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 56.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the US government be shut down for at least 85 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the US government be shut down for at least 75 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the US government be shut down for at least 65 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 98.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the US government be shut down for at least 300 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the US government be shut down for at least 200 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the US government be shut down for at least 150 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the US government be shut down for at least 140 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the US government be shut down for at least 130 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the US government be shut down for at least 120 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the US government be shut down for more than 110 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the US government be shut down for at least 100 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the US government be shut down for at least 80 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the US government be shut down for at least 70 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.3% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the US government be shut down for at least 90 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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45¢

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How long will the government shutdown last?

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Will the US government be shut down for at least 65 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

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Events (1)

How long will the government shutdown last?

Markets (15)

Will the US government be shut down for at least 65 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 65 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 70 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 70 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 75 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 75 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 80 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 80 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 85 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 85 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the US government be shut down for at least 65 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How long will the government shutdown last?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 65 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 65 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 70 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 70 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 75 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 75 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 80 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 80 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 85 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

Will the US government be shut down for at least 85 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

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