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How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Name: How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$508.06K

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Markets

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How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Vol

$508.06K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $508.06K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $508.06K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Poly	52%
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Poly	45%
Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

52%

Top Probability

$508.06K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.


**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $508.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.3K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 49.41)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $101.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $116.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $161.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $62.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $9.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $10.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $31.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $14.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience