This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: Reform wins ___ seats?

Name: 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: Reform wins ___ seats?
End: 2026-05-07T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$16.33K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: Reform wins ___ seats?

Vol

$16.33K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $16.33K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $16.33K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Poly	76%
Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Poly	63%
Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Poly	57%
Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Poly	32%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

76%

Top Probability

$16.33K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Reform UK wins at least the listed number of council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are r

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: Reform wins ___ seats?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 7, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Reform UK wins at least the listed number of council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are r

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Reform UK wins at least the listed number of council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district counci"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $16.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $45.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.36)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 63.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $9.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 76.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics