Market snapshot: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

Closest Governor's Race?

Reported volume

PM $60.7K · K 428.3K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Closest Governor's Race?

Vol

PM $60.7K · K 428.3K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

As of Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, Kansas is the highest-priced outcome on both platforms, at 92.5% on Polymarket and 95% on Kalshi.

Polymarket

Kansas92.5%
Tennessee6.2%
Alabama3.9%
Nebraska2.1%
Florida1.9%

Kalshi

Kansas95%
Alaska3%
Florida1%
Nebraska1%
Oklahoma1%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

36 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Tennessee be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

No data available

Include related or unreviewed contracts

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with usable prices. You can inspect related contracts, but their prices do not measure the same outcome.

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 24 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $60.7K · K 428.3K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

About This Event

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.

Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Polymarket event "Closest Governor's Race?" resolves according to the US state gubernatorial race with the smallest margin of victory [1]. The rules define margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates" [1]. For multi-round elections, the margin is taken from the round in which the winner is determined, and ties go to "the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically" [1].

The rules cover "all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026" [1]. This is a condition in the contract text, not an announced election date. The rules also state that "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The listed end time for each market is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z, and this report retrieved them at 2026-10-20T08:07:24.049Z [1]. They are a record of that observation, not live quotes. The Yes prices shown are Georgia 0.1625, Nevada 0.13, Kansas 0.1235, Ohio 0.104, Texas 0.1005, Florida 0.0875, Wisconsin 0.0845, Tennessee 0.065, Oklahoma 0.0545, Vermont 0.0505, Oregon 0.0405, and Nebraska 0.0315 [1]. Each market is a separate yes or no question about one state, so the prices should be read individually rather than summed or compared as a ranking of the whole field.

The sample is partial. The event contains 36 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The sample was chosen by highest Yes price, so the omitted markets are not shown and should not be assumed to have lower prices. Only one provider is represented here, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.

What remains uncertain

The snapshot does not show trading volume, depth, or the number of participants, and these prices should not be treated as executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence contains no information explaining why any price is where it is. The rules also depend on how certifying authorities or credible reporting determine margins after the election [1], which this snapshot cannot assess. Because the listed end time falls after the scheduled election date in the rules, the actual resolution timing and outcome are not established by this evidence.

References

Polymarket: Closest Governor's Race?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTC

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Event: Closest Governor's Race?
Source snapshot: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $60.7K · K 428.3K contracts
Coverage: 60 of 60 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-AK; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 26.6K contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Alaska has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Alaska be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378989; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-alaska-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $664.41
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Arizona have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-AZ; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 27.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Arizona has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Arizona be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378992; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-arizona-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $157.32
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Colorado have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-CO; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.2K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Colorado has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Colorado be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378994; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-colorado-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $157.4
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Florida have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-FL; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 15.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Florida has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Florida be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379016; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-florida-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $4.7K
Outcome Yes: 1.9%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-GA; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 41.6K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Georgia has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Georgia be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379017; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-georgia-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $5.0K
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-IA; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 26.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Iowa has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Iowa be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379010; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-iowa-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $495.85
Outcome Yes: 0.7%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.4%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-KS; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 31.6K contracts
Outcome Yes: 95.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 5.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Kansas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Kansas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378995; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-kansas-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $8.5K
Outcome Yes: 92.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 7.4%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-ME; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 18.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Maine has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Maine be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379011; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-maine-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $277.65
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-MI; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 21.7K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Michigan has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Michigan be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379001; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-michigan-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $645.42
Outcome Yes: 0.8%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.2%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Minnesota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-MN; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 13.2K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If Minnesota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated

Contract: Will Minnesota be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378996; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-minnesota-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $271.05
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NE; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 16.5K contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Nebraska has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Nebraska be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379034; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-nebraska-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.6K
Outcome Yes: 2.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NH; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 11.5K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If New Hampshire has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calcul

Contract: Will New Hampshire be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379014; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-new-hampshire-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.2K
Outcome Yes: 0.7%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.4%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will New Mexico have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NM; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 12.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If New Mexico has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculate

Contract: Will New Mexico be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378991; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-new-mexico-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $439.91
Outcome Yes: 0.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.6%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Nevada have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NV; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 25.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Nevada has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Nevada be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379019; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-nevada-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $10.0K
Outcome Yes: 0.7%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.4%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will New York have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NY; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 16.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If New York has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will New York be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379035; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-new-york-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $158.63
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-OH; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 21.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Ohio has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Ohio be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379004; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ohio-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $3.1K
Outcome Yes: 0.8%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.3%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Oklahoma have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-OK; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 7.6K contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Oklahoma has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Oklahoma be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379036; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-oklahoma-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $989.17
Outcome Yes: 1.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.7%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Oregon have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-OR; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 8.7K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Oregon has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Oregon be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378990; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-oregon-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $3.0K
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Pennsylvania have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-PA; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 19.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If Pennsylvania has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calcula

Contract: Will Pennsylvania be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379040; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-pennsylvania-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $380.29
Outcome Yes: 0.8%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.3%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will South Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-SC; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.2K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If South Carolina has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calcu

Contract: Will South Carolina be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379042; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-south-carolina-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $471.57
Outcome Yes: 1.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will South Dakota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-SD; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.2K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If South Dakota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calcula

Contract: Will South Dakota be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379043; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-south-dakota-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $278.22
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-TX; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 21.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Texas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Texas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378993; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-texas-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $5.3K
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.6%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Vermont have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-VT; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 10.0K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Vermont has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Contract: Will Vermont be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379018; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-vermont-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $3.8K
Outcome Yes: 1.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Wisconsin have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-WI; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclosestgovernor-27jan20
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 29.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If Wisconsin has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated

Contract: Will Wisconsin be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5378997; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-wisconsin-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.9K
Outcome Yes: 0.7%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.4%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Alabama be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379025; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-alabama-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $539.27
Outcome Yes: 3.9%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.2%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Arkansas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379026; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-arkansas-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $663.32
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will California be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379027; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-california-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $297.65
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Connecticut be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379028; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-connecticut-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $108
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Hawaii be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379029; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-hawaii-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $316.05
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Idaho be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379030; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-idaho-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $291.05
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Illinois be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379031; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-illinois-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $845.62
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Maryland be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379032; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-maryland-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $222.33
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Massachusetts be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379033; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-massachusetts-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $293.47
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Rhode Island be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379041; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-rhode-island-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $387.54
Outcome Yes: 0.9%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.1%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Tennessee be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379044; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-tennessee-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $911.18
Outcome Yes: 6.2%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 93.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Contract: Will Wyoming be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5379045; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-wyoming-be-the-closest-governors-race-in-2026
Observed: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $291.59
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. 

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. 

For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. 

The 

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-5378995 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-KS: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Kansas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378989 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-AK: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Alaska be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379034 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NE: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Nebraska be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378993 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-TX: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Texas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379016 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-FL: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Florida have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Florida be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379001 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-MI: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Michigan be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379004 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-OH: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Ohio be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379040 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-PA: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Pennsylvania have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Pennsylvania be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379018 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-VT: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Vermont have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Vermont be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379010 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-IA: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Iowa be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379014 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NH: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will New Hampshire be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379019 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NV: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Nevada have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Nevada be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378997 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-WI: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Wisconsin have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Wisconsin be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379042 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-SC: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will South Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will South Carolina be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378994 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-CO: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Colorado have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Colorado be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379043 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-SD: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will South Dakota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will South Dakota be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378990 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-OR: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Oregon have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Oregon be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378991 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NM: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will New Mexico have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will New Mexico be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379036 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-OK: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Oklahoma have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Oklahoma be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378992 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-AZ: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Arizona have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Arizona be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379017 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-GA: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Georgia be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379011 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-ME: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Maine be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5378996 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-MN: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Minnesota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Minnesota be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5379035 / kalshi-KXCLOSESTGOVERNOR-27JAN20-NY: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will New York have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will New York be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 4, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 24 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Closest Governor race in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Closest Governor's Race?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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This saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.

Overview

This Polymarket event, titled "Closest Governor's Race?", asks which U.S. state gubernatorial race in 2026 will have the smallest margin of victory. The rules say the market resolves according to the gubernatorial race with the smallest margin, where margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Each percentage is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the election [1]. The rules cover regular and special gubernatorial elections scheduled for November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. They exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and other subdivisions that are not states [1]. The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1]. For elections with runoffs, ranked-choice voting, or other multi-round formats, the margin is measured in the round where the winner is determined. If two state margins are identical, the market resolves to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically [1]. The stated resolution source is a compilation of the relevant state election authorities that certify statewide elections. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The event lists an end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [1]. That is a listed time in the contract, not an announced result or a confirmed resolution date. The market contracts shown here are a partial sample. The saved event contains 36 state markets, and 12 are included in this sample. The sample ranks markets by their Yes price in the snapshot, so the omitted markets are not shown and cannot be compared with the included ones [1]. Prices in a snapshot are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and a higher or lower price does not show how any race will turn out.

Historical Context

The New York gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, and primary elections took place on June 23, 2026. Candidates selected running mates rather than holding separate primaries for lieutenant governor [2]. These details come from a Wikipedia article retrieved on October 20, 2026, so they describe the article's content at that retrieval time rather than a verified current status. The supplied sources do not include a history of past closest-race contracts or of earlier margin-of-victory results.

Why It Matters

The contract measures a single statistic: the smallest margin of victory among the 2026 November gubernatorial races that meet the listed criteria [1]. Because the margin is based on the gap between the top two candidates' shares of valid votes, the contract is about how close a race is rather than which party or candidate wins [1]. Traders can therefore hold positions on states that are expected to be close, while the resolution depends on certified results from state election authorities or credible reporting [1]. The New York race is one of the scheduled 2026 gubernatorial contests in the background sources, with Kathy Hochul running for re-election [2][3]. The supplied evidence does not establish how its margin compares with other states' margins.

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

Which races count toward this contract?

The contract covers regular and special gubernatorial elections scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Territories, the District of Columbia, and other non-state subdivisions are excluded [1].

How is the margin of victory calculated?

The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Each percentage is based on the total valid votes cast in the election [1].

What happens in a runoff or ranked-choice election?

For multi-round elections, the relevant margin is the one from the round in which the winner is determined [1].

What happens if two states have the same margin?

The market resolves to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically [1].

Does the listed end time mean the market resolves then?

No. The event lists an end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC, but the resolution depends on the certified results or consensus reporting described in the rules [1].

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Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Closest Governor race in 2026?

Before Jan 20, 2027 If X has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used. If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins, tied to the hundredth of a percentage point, tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No. This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

Volume$428.32K

Markets24

POLYMARKETPolitics

Closest Governor's Race?

Volume$60.73K

Markets36

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Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Kansas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Wed, 04 Nov 2026 12:34:59 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Yes: 95.0¢
No: 5.0¢

polymarket

Will Kansas be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Yes: 92.5¢
No: 7.4¢

Will Tennessee be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

polymarket

Will Tennessee be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Yes: 6.2¢
No: 93.8¢

Will Alabama be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

polymarket

Will Alabama be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Yes: 3.9¢
No: 96.2¢

Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Alaska be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Wed, 04 Nov 2026 12:34:59 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Yes: 3.0¢
No: 97.0¢

polymarket

Will Alaska be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Yes: 1.5¢
No: 98.5¢

Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?"; listed deadline 2027-01-27T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Nebraska be the closest Governor's race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Wed, 04 Nov 2026 12:34:59 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Yes: 1.0¢
No: 99.0¢

polymarket

Will Nebraska be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Yes: 2.1¢
No: 97.9¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiPolitics

Will the Republicans win the Kentucky governor race in 2027?

Kalshi: Will the Republican party win the governorship in Kentucky

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 76.5%Rules differK Yes 80%

Will the Democrats win the Kentucky governor race in 2027?

Kalshi: Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Kentucky

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 21.5%Rules differK Yes 19.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

2 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC

KalshiPolitics

New Hampshire Governor winner? (2028)

K 0 contracts

Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Hampshire governor race?Yes 74.5%

Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Hampshire governor race?Yes 25.5%

2 mktsNext deadline Nov 7, 2029 UTC

PolymarketPolitics

2026 Senate or Governor race goes to full recount?

PM $762.39

2026 Senate or Governor race goes to full recount?Yes 54%

1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

KalshiPolitics

Closest House race in 2026?

K 13.11 contracts

Will ME-02 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?Yes 49.5%

Will CO-03 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?Yes 49.5%

Will MN-01 have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general elections?Yes 49.5%

+31 moreNext deadline Jan 10, 2027 UTC

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Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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Will Tennessee be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

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Events (2)

Closest Governor race in 2026?

Closest Governor's Race?

Markets (24)

Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Will Tennessee be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Will Alabama be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Related prediction markets

Closest Senate race in 2026?

Kansas Governor winner?

Kentucky governor winner? (2027)

New Hampshire Governor winner? (2028)

2026 Senate or Governor race goes to full recount?

Closest House race in 2026?

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Will Tennessee be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

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Closest Governor race in 2026?

Closest Governor's Race?

Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Will Tennessee be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Will Alabama be the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

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