GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

European Central Bank rate decision in July

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European Central Bank rate decision in July

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Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?	Kalshi	97%
Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?	Kalshi	3%
Will the European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?	Kalshi	1%
Will the European Central Bank Cut more than 25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?	Kalshi	1%
Will the European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?	Kalshi	1%

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97%

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About This Event

Jul 23, 2026 meeting If the European Central Bank takes the action X more than 25bps at July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emerg

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** European Central Bank rate decision in July
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Jul 23, 2026 meeting

If the European Central Bank takes the action X more than 25bps at July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emerg

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the European Central Bank takes the action of Maintain current rate at July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multipl"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the European Central Bank Cut more than 25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

European Central Bank rate decision in July

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KALSHI

Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

If the European Central Bank takes the action of Maintain current rate at July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multipl

KALSHI

Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

If the European Central Bank takes the action of Hike 1-25bps at July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy

KALSHI

Will the European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

If the European Central Bank takes the action of Hike more than 25bps at July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple

KALSHI

Will the European Central Bank Cut more than 25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the European Central Bank Cut more than 25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

If the European Central Bank takes the action of Cut more than 25bps at July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple

KALSHI

Will the European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

If the European Central Bank takes the action of Cut 1-25bps at July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy r

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European Central Bank rate decision in July

European Central Bank rate decision in July

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Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

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Events (1)

European Central Bank rate decision in July

Markets (5)

Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Cut more than 25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Cut more than 25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

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Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

European Central Bank rate decision in July

Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Cut more than 25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Cut more than 25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

Will the European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the July ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

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