Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank?

Total Volume

$6.70K

Events

Markets

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Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank?

Vol

$6.70K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $6.70K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.70K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	41%
Will Klaas Knot be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	31%
Will François Villeroy de Galhau be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	7%
Will Joachim Nagel be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	6%
Will Nadia Calviño be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	5%
Will Fabio Panetta be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	5%
Will Olli Rehn be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

41%

Top Probability

$6.70K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2028 If X de Y formally holds the position of President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity, as formally designated by the body or organization at which the pos

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2028

If X de Y formally holds the position of President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity, as formally designated by the body or organization at which the pos

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Pablo Hernández de Cos formally holds the position of President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded.

For the purpos"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Olli Rehn be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $689
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Nadia Calviño be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $689
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Klaas Knot be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $289
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Joachim Nagel be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $349
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will François Villeroy de Galhau be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Fabio Panetta be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $689
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank?

Volume$6.70K

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 40.5¢No 59.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

If Pablo Hernández de Cos formally holds the position of President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purpos

KALSHI

Will Klaas Knot be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 31.0¢No 69.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Klaas Knot be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

If Klaas Knot formally holds the position of President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this C

KALSHI

Will François Villeroy de Galhau be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will François Villeroy de Galhau be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

If François Villeroy de Galhau formally holds the position of President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the p

KALSHI

Will Joachim Nagel be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Joachim Nagel be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

If Joachim Nagel formally holds the position of President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of thi

KALSHI

Will Nadia Calviño be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Nadia Calviño be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

If Nadia Calviño formally holds the position of President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of thi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/sGT8A0" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank?"></iframe>

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Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank?

Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank?

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Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

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Events (1)

Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank?

Markets (7)

Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Klaas Knot be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Klaas Knot be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will François Villeroy de Galhau be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will François Villeroy de Galhau be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Joachim Nagel be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Joachim Nagel be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Nadia Calviño be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Nadia Calviño be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

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Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank?

Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Klaas Knot be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Klaas Knot be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will François Villeroy de Galhau be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will François Villeroy de Galhau be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Joachim Nagel be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Joachim Nagel be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Nadia Calviño be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Nadia Calviño be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028?

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