Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Taiwan rate decision in December

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Taiwan rate decision in December

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Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?	Kalshi	62%
Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) hike 1-12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?	Kalshi	34%
Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) hike more than 12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?	Kalshi	3%
Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) cut more than 12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?	Kalshi	3%
Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) cut 1-12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?	Kalshi	3%

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About This Event

Dec 17, 2026 meeting If the Central Bank of the Republic of China, Taiwan, takes the action of X more than 12.5bps at its December Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For Taiwan, only changes to the discount rate announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of China, Taiwan, count. Changes solely to the rate on refinancing of secured loans or the rate on temporary accommodations

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Taiwan rate decision in December
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Dec 17, 2026 meeting

If the Central Bank of the Republic of China, Taiwan, takes the action of X more than 12.5bps at its December Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For Taiwan, only changes to the discount rate announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of China, Taiwan, count. Changes solely to the rate on refinancing of secured loans or the rate on temporary accommodations 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) takes the action of maintain current rate at its December Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For Taiwan, only ch"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 24, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 62.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) hike more than 12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 24, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) hike 1-12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 24, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) cut more than 12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 24, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) cut 1-12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 24, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Taiwan rate decision in December

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KALSHI

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.0¢No 38.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

If the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) takes the action of maintain current rate at its December Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For Taiwan, only ch

KALSHI

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) hike 1-12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 34.0¢No 66.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) hike 1-12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

If the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) takes the action of hike 1-12.5bps at its December Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For Taiwan, only changes t

KALSHI

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) hike more than 12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) hike more than 12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

If the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) takes the action of hike more than 12.5bps at its December Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For Taiwan, only c

KALSHI

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) cut more than 12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) cut more than 12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

If the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) takes the action of cut more than 12.5bps at its December Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For Taiwan, only ch

KALSHI

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) cut 1-12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) cut 1-12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

If the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) takes the action of cut 1-12.5bps at its December Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For Taiwan, only changes to

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Taiwan rate decision in December

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Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

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Events (1)

Taiwan rate decision in December

Markets (5)

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) hike 1-12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) hike 1-12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) hike more than 12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) hike more than 12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) cut more than 12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) cut more than 12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) cut 1-12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) cut 1-12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

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Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Taiwan rate decision in December

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) hike 1-12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) hike 1-12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) hike more than 12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) hike more than 12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) cut more than 12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) cut more than 12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) cut 1-12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) cut 1-12.5bps at the December Monetary Policy Meeting?

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