This market asks whether Iran will target Egypt with a qualifying military action before the listed end date of 31 October 2026 at 20:59 UTC. The contract resolves to "Yes" only if Iran carries out such an action between market creation and that listed date, measured by Cairo time [1]. Otherwise it resolves to "No" [1]. The provider lists the market as active [1]. The contract is narrow in what it counts. A qualifying action is either an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike initiated by Iran and directed at Egypt. Air strikes include bombs, air-to-surface missiles and air-launched drones. Surface-to-surface strikes include one-way attack drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles [1]. The rules exclude surface-to-air missile strikes, small-arms fire, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval and artillery fire, mortars and rocket artillery, short-range loitering munitions, FPV drones and anti-tank guided missile strikes. Threats or announcements of force that have not been carried out do not count [1]. The target must be Egyptian terrestrial territory, including internal waters [1]. Only actions explicitly claimed by Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, count. Attacks by proxy forces such as Hezbollah or the Houthis do not count [1]. An action that is intercepted before impact can still qualify, since interception, landing location and damage are not considered [1]. Attribution and timing are judged mainly by a consensus of information from the resolution sources. These are official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and Egypt, along with a consensus of credible reporting [1]. Where sources conflict, the market can stay open for up to three full calendar days (Cairo time) from the first credible report, after which the incident is judged on the totality of available information [1]. The market belongs to a single provider event, and the saved sample contains only this one market, so there are no other outcomes in the sample to compare against [1].

Historical Context

The contract sits within a broader conflict. Since 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel have been at war with Iran and its regional allies. The war followed the Twelve-Day War in June 2025 and sporadic fighting linked to the Gaza war. It began when the United States and Israel conducted hundreds of air strikes across Iran, including strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several other officials [2]. Egypt has also been affected. On 29 July 2026, a drone strike caused an explosion at the port in Damietta, Egypt, setting fire to two ships, including a United States gas-storage tanker. Egyptian authorities confirmed that a drone strike caused the fire, but no party has claimed responsibility for it [3]. The available sources do not attribute that strike to Iran, and it is not a finding of this contract. Under the contract rules, an unclaimed or unattributed strike would only count if it were shown to be an Iranian action directed at Egypt [1][3].

Frequently Asked Questions