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Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?

Name: How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?
End: 2026-10-03T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.40K

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How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?

Vol

$9.40K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $9.40K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.40K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	Poly	99%
Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	Poly	61%
Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	Poly	32%
Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	Poly	10%
Will a 8.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	Poly	2%
Will a 9.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$9.40K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, September 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 3, 2026 (28 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".

A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.31)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will a 8.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $357
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will a 9.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $216
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate