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Will a 8.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?

Yes3%+0.8%

Vol$357.41

Outcomes2

3%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will a 8.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?

Part of: How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?

NoNo Price

97¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$357.41

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Oct 4, 2026

in 28 days

Trade on Polymarket

Will a 8.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?

No

97¢

|

Vol

$357.41

|

Outcomes

2

Yes3.5¢

No96.5¢

Price History

Will a 8.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

28 Days Left

October 04, 2026 • 3:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?

How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

October 04, 2026

3:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point. Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered. The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.