Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

What will NYC’s average daily shelter census be in December 2026?

Total Volume

$450.00

Events

Markets

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What will NYC’s average daily shelter census be in December 2026?

Vol

$450.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $450.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $450.00

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 86000 for December 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 86000 for December 2026?	Kalshi	92%
Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 88000 for December 2026?	Kalshi	84%
Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 90000 for December 2026?	Kalshi	76%
Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 92000 for December 2026?	Kalshi	64%
Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 94000 for December 2026?	Kalshi	51%
Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 96000 for December 2026?	Kalshi	38%
Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 98000 for December 2026?	Kalshi	26%
Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 100000 for December 2026?	Kalshi	13%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

92%

Top Probability

$450.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

for December 2026 If the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” is above X for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will NYC’s average daily shelter census be in December 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** for December 2026

If the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” is above X for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” is above 98,000 for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $450
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 98000 for December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 96000 for December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 94000 for December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 92000 for December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $20
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 90000 for December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 88000 for December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 86000 for December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $410
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 100000 for December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

What will NYC’s average daily shelter census be in December 2026?

Volume$450.00

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 86000 for December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.5¢No 8.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 86000 for December 2026?

If the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” is above 86,000 for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 88000 for December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.0¢No 16.0¢

KALSHITech

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 88000 for December 2026?

If the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” is above 88,000 for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 90000 for December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 75.5¢No 24.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 90000 for December 2026?

If the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” is above 90,000 for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 92000 for December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 63.5¢No 36.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 92000 for December 2026?

If the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” is above 92,000 for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 94000 for December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

KALSHITech

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 94000 for December 2026?

If the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” is above 94,000 for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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55¢

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What will NYC’s average daily shelter census be in December 2026?

What will NYC’s average daily shelter census be in December 2026?

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Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 86000 for December 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

What will NYC’s average daily shelter census be in December 2026?

Markets (8)

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 86000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 86000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 88000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 88000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 90000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 90000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 92000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 92000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 94000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 94000 for December 2026?

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Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 86000 for December 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

What will NYC’s average daily shelter census be in December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 86000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 86000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 88000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 88000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 90000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 90000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 92000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 92000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 94000 for December 2026?

Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 94000 for December 2026?

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