Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

What will NYC’s average weekday bus speed be in December 2026?

Total Volume

$205.00

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What will NYC’s average weekday bus speed be in December 2026?

Vol

$205.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

markets · $205.00

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $205.00

100%

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6 markets tracked

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8 mph for December 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8 mph for December 2026?	Kalshi	90%
Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.1 mph for December 2026?	Kalshi	77%
Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.2 mph for December 2026?	Kalshi	65%
Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.3 mph for December 2026?	Kalshi	35%
Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.4 mph for December 2026?	Kalshi	24%
Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.5 mph for December 2026?	Kalshi	12%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

90%

Top Probability

$205.00

Volume

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About This Event

for December 2026 If the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service is at least X mph for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will NYC’s average weekday bus speed be in December 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** for December 2026

If the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service is at least X mph for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service is at least 8.5 mph for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $205
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.5 mph for December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.4 mph for December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.3 mph for December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 2, 2027): Vol $205
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.2 mph for December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 65.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.1 mph for December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8 mph for December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

What will NYC’s average weekday bus speed be in December 2026?

Volume$205.00

Markets6

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KALSHI

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8 mph for December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.0¢No 10.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8 mph for December 2026?

If the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service is at least 8 mph for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.1 mph for December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.0¢No 23.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.1 mph for December 2026?

If the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service is at least 8.1 mph for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.2 mph for December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 65.0¢No 35.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.2 mph for December 2026?

If the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service is at least 8.2 mph for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.3 mph for December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 34.5¢No 65.5¢

KALSHICompanies

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.3 mph for December 2026?

If the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service is at least 8.3 mph for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.4 mph for December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.4 mph for December 2026?

If the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service is at least 8.4 mph for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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50¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Yv1Dfm" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="What will NYC’s average weekday bus speed be in December 2026?"></iframe>

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What will NYC’s average weekday bus speed be in December 2026?

What will NYC’s average weekday bus speed be in December 2026?

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Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8 mph for December 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

What will NYC’s average weekday bus speed be in December 2026?

Markets (6)

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.1 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.1 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.2 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.2 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.3 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.3 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.4 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.4 mph for December 2026?

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Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8 mph for December 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

What will NYC’s average weekday bus speed be in December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.1 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.1 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.2 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.2 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.3 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.3 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.4 mph for December 2026?

Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.4 mph for December 2026?

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