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Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

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Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

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5 markets tracked

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (United States)

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (United States)	Kalshi	60%
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (China)	Kalshi	43%
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (Russia)	Kalshi	2%
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (India)	Kalshi	2%
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (European Space Agency)	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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About This Event

Before 2031 If X is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. If Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SpaceX, or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States. The market will close if a country launches a manned Moon mission.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2031

If X is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. If Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SpaceX, or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States. The market will close if a country launches a manned Moon mission.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (United States)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (Russia)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (China)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (India)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (European Space Agency)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

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KALSHI

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (United States)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.1¢No 39.9¢

KALSHIScience

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (United States)

If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes

KALSHI

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (China)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.0¢No 57.0¢

KALSHIScience

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (China)

If China is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the

KALSHI

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (Russia)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIScience

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (Russia)

If Russia is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the

KALSHI

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (India)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢

KALSHIScience

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (India)

If India is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the

KALSHI

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (European Space Agency)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.1¢No 99.0¢

KALSHIScience

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (European Space Agency)

If European Space Agency is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/PH3eyr" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?"></iframe>

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Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (United States)

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

Markets (5)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (United States)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (United States)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (China)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (China)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (Russia)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (Russia)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (India)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (India)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (European Space Agency)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (European Space Agency)

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Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (United States)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (United States)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (United States)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (China)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (China)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (Russia)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (Russia)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (India)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (India)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (European Space Agency)

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? (European Space Agency)

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