Mississippi Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
PM $16.7K
1
8
Mississippi Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
PM $16.7K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 10-15% at 26.5%.
Polymarket
- Republican 10-15%26.5%
- Republican 5-10%24.5%
- Republican 15-20%17.5%
- Republican 0-5%16.8%
- Democrat Wins11.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $16.7K
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The first round of the 2026 Mississippi Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Mississippi Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract resolves on the margin of victory in the first round of the 2026 Mississippi Senate election. The margin is defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Party labels are fixed by nomination: candidates "nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for 'Democrat' and 'Republican,' respectively," and independent candidates "will not represent options for either party" [1].
Boundary and tie rules matter for comparing brackets. If the reported value "falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. The contract also sets out tie-breaking rules and states that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market "will resolve to 'Other'" [1].
Reading the snapshot
This event contains eight saved markets, all included in the sample, with no partial sampling reported [1]. The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-16T00:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T01:04:50Z [1]. These are provider observations at that time, not live or executable quotes, and they do not verify probabilities.
The quoted Yes prices are 0.275 for a 5% to 10% Republican margin, 0.255 for 10% to 15%, 0.2145 for 0% to 5%, 0.135 for 15% to 20%, 0.0855 for a Democratic win, 0.0515 for 25% to 30%, 0.052 for 30% or more, and 0.025 for 20% to 25% [1]. The Democratic win contract is a separate yes or no question, not a margin bracket, so it should not be placed on the same scale as the margin ranges without noting that difference.
Each market lists the same end time, 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. That is the listed close time in the provider data. The contract text separately says the market resolves on official results, so the listed close time is not the same as the resolution date.
What remains uncertain
The sample warning states that the saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. A low price on any bracket here does not show that an omitted outcome is less likely. The prices should also not be summed or averaged into a single estimate, because they come from one snapshot and are not a verified distribution.
The contract text says the first round "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. This is a date from the contract text, not a confirmed event schedule from the supplied evidence. The evidence also does not show the current nominees, recent campaign developments, or reasons for any price level. Readers comparing this contract with a similar contract elsewhere should check that the wording, tie rules, and close times match before comparing prices.
References
- Polymarket: Mississippi Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round). Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
The Polymarket event "Mississippi Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)" is a contract about how decisively the 2026 Mississippi Senate election is won. The saved event describes the first round as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The contract does not ask who will win in the abstract. It resolves on the gap between the top two candidates. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a top-two candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options. Independent candidates do not count as either party option [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract is updated and resolves on the replacement nominee [1]. The contract uses brackets. If the reported margin falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Ties for the most valid votes are handled by specific rules. When the tie is between two listed candidates, the lowest bracket goes to the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. When the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, the lowest bracket goes to the listed candidate. When the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Resolution depends on the official vote count. The primary source is the official result published by the state electoral authority that certifies the election, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount ends and the vote is certified [1]. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z is a provider field and is not the same as the date the result is certified or the contract resolves. The saved event contains eight contracts, and all of them were included in this record, so the sample is not partial [1]. Seven contracts ask whether the Republican candidate wins by a specified margin: 0% to 5%, 5% to 10%, 10% to 15%, 15% to 20%, 20% to 25%, 25% to 30%, and 30% or more. The eighth asks whether the Democratic candidate wins the election [1]. Prices in this record are snapshots of the provider data at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and a difference in price between two contracts does not by itself indicate an opportunity.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the size of the winning margin between the top two candidates, expressed as a difference in percentage points of valid votes [1]. This is separate from whether a Republican or Democrat wins. The saved event includes a separate contract for a Democratic win, while the margin brackets shown in this record are framed around a Republican win [1]. Because the margin depends on valid votes and the official certified count, the resolution process, tie rules, recount rules, and the June 30, 2027 fallback all determine how a contract settles [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
It is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if a margin falls exactly between two brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
Do independent candidates count as party options?
No. Independent candidates do not represent either the Democrat or Republican option in this market [1].
What happens if the results are not known by June 30, 2027?
The market resolves to "Other" if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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