Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Panama Canal effectively closed by...?

Name: Panama Canal effectively closed by...?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$290.25

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Panama Canal effectively closed by...?

Vol

$290.25

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $290.25

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $290.25

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Panama Canal effectively closed by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Panama Canal effectively closed by December 31?	Poly	8%
Panama Canal effectively closed by November 30?	Poly	5%
Panama Canal effectively closed by October 31?	Poly	3%
Panama Canal effectively closed by October 15?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$290.25

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Panama Canal Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has be

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Panama Canal effectively closed by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (82 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Panama Canal Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has be

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $290
* **Total Liquidity:** $34.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Panama Canal effectively closed by October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $142
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Panama Canal effectively closed by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $145
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Panama Canal effectively closed by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Panama Canal effectively closed by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics