Chipotle Monthly Credit Card Spend in November 2026
K 2.43 contracts
1
16
K 2.43 contracts
1
16
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 97.5 at 44%.
Kalshi
- Above 97.544%
- Above 9840%
- Above 98.535%
- Above 9932.5%
- Above 99.528.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 2.43 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
16
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Snapshot observed Nov 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether the Carbon Arc Chipotle Monthly Credit Card Spend index for November 2026 will be above a stated threshold. The index measures year-over-year change, where "100 means Chipotle Monthly Credit Card Spend was equal to the same month last year" [1]. Values above 100 indicate growth, and values below 100 indicate decline [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract, so the 99 contract and the 104.5 contract resolve independently.
Resolution uses "finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 4th calendar day after the end of the month covered by this market" [1]. The listed end date in the saved data is Dec 14, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC [1]. That timestamp is a listed close time, not the resolution recording time, and the excerpt itself says the listed end time is "not supplied" [1]. The rules also state that the market "will close and expire early if the economic data is released" [1]. The excerpt does not give a release date, so none is stated here.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at Nov 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC and retrieved at Nov 13, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC [1]. They describe that snapshot only. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Within the included sample, the Yes price falls as the threshold rises. The 99 contract shows Yes at 0.32, the 100 contract at 0.25, and the 104.5 contract at 0.07 [1]. The No prices in each contract sum to the Yes price in that contract. The sample includes 12 of 13 markets for this event [1]. Those 12 were selected by highest Yes price, then volume [1]. The one omitted market is not shown, so the rest of the threshold ladder cannot be fully described.
Volume and the number of traders are not in the evidence, so this snapshot cannot indicate liquidity or agreement among participants. Price differences between thresholds reflect different contracts with different thresholds, not an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it does not show any price history. The finalized index value for November 2026 is not in the supplied material, so no outcome is known. The contract also depends on Carbon Arc's aggregated transaction panel, which the rules say "updates daily as new data arrives" [1]. Readers should compare the listed close time with the resolution recording time, and should check the live provider page before relying on any figure.
References
- Kalshi: Chipotle Monthly Credit Card Spend in November 2026. Provider data observed Nov 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 13, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event titled "Chipotle Monthly Credit Card Spend in November 2026" in the Financials category. The contract is based on an index of year-over-year change in Chipotle's monthly credit card spend, not on a company financial report. The event's rules state that "If the Carbon Arc Chipotle Monthly Credit Card Spend, November 2026, for November 2026 is above X , then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Each market in the event uses a different threshold X. The index is defined so that "100 means Chipotle Monthly Credit Card Spend was equal to the same month last year" [1]. Values above 100 indicate growth over the prior year, and values below 100 indicate decline. The rules give the examples "103 = 3% more spend than year prior" and "97 = 3% decline from year prior" [1]. The index is measured using Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, matched to the same period of the prior year, and the rules note that "The panel updates daily as new data arrives" [1]. The rules also say that determination will resolve on finalized Carbon Arc values rather than on the live panel. Those finalized values are recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the fourth calendar day after the end of the month covered by the market [1]. The rules illustrate this with August, where finalized values would be recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 4th [1]. The rules also state that the market "will close and expire early if the economic data is released" [1]. The market's listed end date is a field in the saved provider data, and it is not a confirmed resolution time.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Chipotle's monthly credit card spend for November 2026, as indexed by Carbon Arc, will be above a chosen threshold. Because the index is expressed relative to the same month a year earlier, a reading above 100 means spend grew year over year and a reading below 100 means it declined [1]. Each threshold market asks a separate yes or no question about the same underlying index value. Prices shown for these markets are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should be read as market prices at the time of capture rather than as forecasts.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-13 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the index measure?
The index measures year-over-year change in Chipotle Monthly Credit Card Spend. A value of 100 means spend equaled the same month last year, values above 100 indicate growth, and values below 100 indicate decline [1]. It is measured using Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, matched to the same period of the prior year [1].
When are the results finalized?
The rules say that determination will resolve on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the fourth calendar day after the end of the month covered by the market [1]. The rules give the August example, with values recorded on September 4th [1].
Is Kalshi connected to Chipotle?
The event rules state that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company, and that all trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners [1].
Why are there many markets for the same event?
Each market in the event uses a different threshold. The market titles ask whether the November 2026 value will be above a specific number, and the rules say the market resolves to Yes if the value is above X [1]. Each threshold is therefore a separate contract on the same index.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
