Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend in November 2026
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Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 96 at 94.5%.
Kalshi
- Above 9694.5%
- Above 9890.5%
- Above 10084.5%
- Above 10273.5%
- Above 11064.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
14
Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Snapshot observed Nov 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contracts track the Carbon Arc Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend index for November 2026. The index is a year-over-year measure, so 100 means spend equaled the same month last year, values above 100 indicate growth, and values below 100 indicate decline [1]. Each market asks whether the November 2026 value will be above a specific threshold, and the source states that the market resolves to Yes if it is [1]. The source describes the data as Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, matched to the same period of the prior year [1].
The contract rules say determination uses finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 4th calendar day after the end of the month covered, with August's example given as September 4th [1]. The source also says the market may close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. The listed end time is recorded as not supplied in the excerpt [1], so the rules' recording time should not be confused with the listed close timestamp.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-11-13T03:00:06 UTC, and the record was retrieved at 2026-11-13T05:14:57 UTC. These are historical snapshot values, not current quotes. The Yes prices fall as the threshold rises: 0.94 for above 96, 0.84 for above 100, 0.73 for above 102, 0.59 for above 104, and 0.105 for above 114 [1]. Each Yes and No pair is a separate binary market, so the prices describe that threshold only.
The sample is partial. The provider event has 14 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The included set was selected by highest finite Yes price, so the omitted markets should not be assumed to have any particular price. Prices are snapshots, not executable quotes, and this comparison makes no claim about trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price changed or whether the market reflects a forecast that will prove accurate. It also does not provide any news, release schedule, or confirmed data publication date beyond the rule text. Because the source contains only one provider event, no cross-platform comparison is possible here. Different thresholds within this event should not be treated as arbitrage opportunities.
References
- Kalshi: Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend in November 2026. Provider data observed Nov 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 13, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia contract is a threshold market on the Carbon Arc Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend index for November 2026. It resolves to Yes if the index value for November 2026 is above the threshold named in the market title [1]. The index measures year-over-year change in card spending. A value of 100 means spending matched the same month a year earlier, values above 100 indicate growth, and values below 100 indicate decline. For example, 103 means 3% more spend than the prior year, and 97 means a 3% decline [1]. The index is built from Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, matched to the same period of the prior year. The panel updates daily as new data arrives [1]. The rules say determination uses finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the fourth calendar day after the end of the covered month. For November 2026, that points to a recording on the fourth calendar day after November ends, not to the listed end date in the market record [1]. The market also closes and expires early if the economic data is released [1]. The saved market record shows 14 threshold markets for this event, ranging from above 96 to above 118. Only 12 of those 14 are included in the sample, selected by Yes price and then volume. The omitted thresholds are not known to be lower or higher priced, and the sample should not be read as the full field. Prices are snapshots from the observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether year-over-year card spending in the monitored panel for November 2026 will land above a chosen index level [1]. Because the baseline is 100, each threshold asks whether spending growth or decline will be larger than a specific percentage relative to the prior year, as set out in the contract rules [1]. The rules depend on finalized provider values rather than on preliminary observations, so the resolution timing differs from the snapshot time shown with the prices [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-13 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an index value of 100 mean in this contract?
A value of 100 means Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline [1].
When is the November 2026 market determined?
The rules say determination resolves on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the fourth calendar day after the end of the month covered by the market [1].
What data source is used to measure the index?
The index is measured by Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, matched to the same period of the prior year [1].
Can the market close before the resolution date?
Yes. The rules state that the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1].
Is the price list a complete view of all thresholds?
No. The sample includes 12 of 14 threshold markets for this event, so it is a partial view and should not be treated as the full field [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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