Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend in November 2026
K 61.31 contracts
1
14
K 61.31 contracts
1
14
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 99 at 82%.
Kalshi
- Above 9982%
- Above 10078%
- Above 10172%
- Above 10265.5%
- Above 10358.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 61.31 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
14
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Snapshot observed Nov 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether the Carbon Arc Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend index for November 2026 will be above a stated threshold. The index is a year-over-year measure: "where 100 means Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline" [1]. The source states it is "measured by Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, matched to the same period of the prior year" [1].
Resolution depends on finalized values, not the live index. The rules say determination "will resolve on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 4th calendar day after the end of the month covered by this market" [1]. The listed end date in the saved market data is Dec 14, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC [1]. The provider excerpt also says the listed end time is "not supplied," so the rules and the listed date should be read separately. The rules also state that the market "will close and expire early if the economic data is released" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The evidence contains one Kalshi event with 11 markets, one for each threshold from 102 to 112. Each market is a separate Yes or No question, so the thresholds should not be read as one probability distribution. The Yes prices in this snapshot fall as the threshold rises: 0.65 for above 102, 0.58 for above 103, 0.50 for above 104, 0.42 for above 105, 0.36 for above 106, 0.29 for above 107, 0.24 for above 108, 0.19 for above 109, 0.14 for above 110, 0.11 for above 111, and 0.09 for above 112 [1].
The sample is complete for this event. The coverage record lists 11 total markets and 11 included, with partialSample set to false [1]. This means every saved market for the event appears here. It does not show that the provider lists every possible real-world threshold.
These are quoted snapshots from one observation, not executable prices or verified probabilities. The observation time is Nov 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, and the retrieval time is Nov 13, 2026, 5:06 AM UTC [1]. Prices can change after retrieval. Volume is not included in this comparison, so it cannot show liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include a current November 2026 index value, any explanation for the price pattern, or any other platform's pricing. Because only one platform is present, no cross-platform comparison is possible, and differences in wording or close times between contracts should not be treated as arbitrage. The listed end date and the resolution rule describe different timing points, and the evidence does not explain how they relate in practice. Readers should check the provider's current rules and status before relying on any figure.
References
- Kalshi: Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend in November 2026. Provider data observed Nov 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 13, 2026 UTCOverview
This Kalshi event asks whether the Carbon Arc Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend index for November 2026 will be above a chosen threshold. Each market in the event sets a different threshold. The contract is tied to a spending index rather than to an Amazon financial result. The index measures year-over-year change, where 100 means Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend equaled the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline. For example, 103 means 3% more spend than the prior year, and 97 means a 3% decline [1]. Under the rules, a market resolves to Yes if the November 2026 value is above the threshold in its title [1]. The index is measured using Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, matched to the same period of the prior year. The panel updates daily as new data arrives [1]. The rules say resolution uses finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the fourth calendar day after the end of the month covered by the market. For November, that finalization point falls in early December, not on the last day of November [1]. The rules also state that the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. Because of that provision, the saved record's end date should not be read as a fixed resolution date. The saved market records list an end date of December 14, 2026 at 05:00 UTC for each threshold. The source excerpt for the event lists its end time as not supplied, so that date is a field in the saved records and not an announced event date [1]. Each market is a separate binary question about one threshold, so the markets are related by a shared underlying index rather than being independent measurements. The event is a contract on a card-spending measure. It does not describe Amazon's reported revenue, and the rules say Kalshi is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or officially connected to Amazon [1].
Historical Context
Amazon was founded in 1994 by Jeff Bezos in Bellevue, Washington. It started as an online book marketplace and gradually expanded to include virtually all consumer products and many other categories, positioned as "The Everything Store" [3]. The supplied sources do not provide historical data on the index itself or on monthly Amazon card spend over time.
Why It Matters
The contract measures year-over-year change in U.S. credit and debit card spending associated with Amazon, as estimated from a card transaction panel [1]. A threshold of 100 means no change from the prior year, so the thresholds in this event describe how much growth the November 2026 index would need to exceed. Because the index is built from card transactions, the contract relates to consumer spending patterns rather than to Amazon's official accounts. Credit cards are payment cards, usually issued by banks, that let users buy goods and services on credit, with card use creating debt that must be repaid later [2]. The source does not connect that background to any specific November 2026 outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-13 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a value of 100 mean on this index?
A value of 100 means Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline [1].
When is the November 2026 market determined?
Resolution uses finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the fourth calendar day after the end of the month covered by the market [1]. The rules also allow early closing if the economic data is released [1].
What happens if the November value is above a market's threshold?
The market resolves to Yes if the November 2026 value is above the threshold stated in that market's title [1].
Is this contract connected to Amazon?
The rules state that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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