KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
PM $274.3K
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KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
PM $274.3K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, Yes is priced at 4.8% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes4.8%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $274.3K
Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, will formally declare a new independent state separate from Iraq by December 31, 2026 [1]. The rules state that a qualifying public announcement is enough for a "Yes" resolution, even if governing authority is never established or recognized [1]. The declaration must claim authority over an identified area, which need not be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified, and a majority of that territory must lie within Iraq's borders as they existed when the market was created [1]. The resolution source is "a consensus of credible reporting" [1].
Timing matters here. The rules refer to 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, while the listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That UTC timestamp is the same deadline expressed in a different time zone, but readers should use the listed close time when checking when trading ends.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-18T04:20:47.098Z [1]. These figures describe the saved record, not live trading at the time you read this. The market is listed as active in the saved record [1].
The saved prices are Yes at 0.046 and No at 0.954 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The sample covers one market from one platform (Polymarket) in one event, with no partial sampling [1]. Because only one outcome pair is present, there is no comparison with other contracts or platforms in this evidence.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the Yes price is at its saved level, and it does not show any recent reporting on the KRG or Iraq. It also does not indicate how many traders are active or how much liquidity sits behind these prices. Because the resolution depends on how credible reporting is interpreted, a reader should check the contract wording closely rather than relying on the displayed price alone.
References
- Polymarket: KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 18, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket contract titled "KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?" The contract asks whether the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, will formally declare the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq by December 31, 2026 [1]. The rules are the main evidence available for this entry, so the explanation below focuses on how the contract is defined. Under the rules, a qualifying declaration needs a clear public statement from the organization or its leadership. The statement must announce an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claim governmental authority over an identified geographic area that was previously under Iraqi governance [1]. The territory does not have to be precisely defined, but it must be at least partially specified, and a majority of the claimed territory must lie within Iraq's internationally recognized borders as they existed when the market was created [1]. The rules state that a qualifying public announcement is enough for a "Yes" resolution even if governing authority is never actually established, maintained, or recognized [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC, which matches the rule's deadline of 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026 [1]. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific type of formal political act occurs within a defined window. It does not measure whether an independent state is actually functioning, because the rules say an announcement alone is sufficient [1]. Readers should therefore separate the declaration itself from any later question of governance or recognition. The contract also depends on the territory test: the claimed area must be at least partly specified and mostly inside Iraq's borders as they existed when the market was created [1]. Because resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, the outcome depends on how that reporting characterizes any statement made before the deadline [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-18 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a declaration have to establish an actual independent government to resolve Yes?
No. The rules state that a qualifying public announcement is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized [1].
What deadline does the contract use?
The rules set the deadline as December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and the listed end time is 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC [1].
Does the claimed territory need exact borders?
No. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined, but it must be at least partially specified, and a majority of it must lie within Iraq's internationally recognized borders as they existed when the market was created [1].
How will the contract be resolved?
The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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