GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Name: Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$759.31K

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Markets

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Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Vol

$759.31K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $759.31K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $759.31K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

16 markets tracked

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	Poly	11%
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?	Poly	10%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	Poly	10%
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?	Poly	8%
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?	Poly	7%
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	Poly	7%
Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?	Poly	6%
Will Iraq recognize Israel by December 31?	Poly	5%
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31?	Poly	5%
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?	Poly	5%
Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31?	Poly	4%
Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?	Poly	4%
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?	Poly	4%
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31?	Poly	4%
Will Malaysia recognize Israel by December 31?	Poly	4%
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

11%

Top Probability

$759.31K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a con

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a con

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government'"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $759.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $364.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.09)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $20.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $9.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $66.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $114.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $20.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Iraq recognize Israel by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $13.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $9.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $21.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $358.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $12.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $16.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $36.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $18.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Malaysia recognize Israel by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $12.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $13.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $16.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics