GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

Name: ChatGPT Full Outage by...?
End: 2026-09-30T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$13.81K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

Vol

$13.81K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $13.81K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.81K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30?	Poly	39%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

39%

Top Probability

$13.81K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an inc

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** ChatGPT Full Outage by...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 30, 2026 (26 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Classifications of an inc

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected componen"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.96)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech