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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

ChatGPT Full Outage by...?
Vol

PM $27.5K

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Events

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Markets

2

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is November 30 at 19.5%.

Polymarket

  1. November 3019.5%
  2. October 3114.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $27.5K

Reported volume · provider units

2

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketTech
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?

PM $30.3K
Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?Yes 70.5%
Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?Yes 29.6%
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?Yes 0.8%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
ChatGPT Outage by...?

ChatGPT Outage by...?

PM $565.02
ChatGPT Outage by November 15, 2026?Yes 85.5%
ChatGPT Outage by October 31, 2026?Yes 59.5%
2 mktsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
KalshiTech
Amazon headcount in Q3

Amazon headcount in Q3

K 68.0K contracts
Will Amazon.com Inc. report Above 1.54 million employees (full-time & part-time, excl. contractors/temps) in Q3 2026?Yes 97.5%
Will Amazon.com Inc. report Above 1.56 million employees (full-time & part-time, excl. contractors/temps) in Q3 2026?Yes 96.5%
Will Amazon.com Inc. report Above 1.58 million employees (full-time & part-time, excl. contractors/temps) in Q3 2026?Yes 94.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Feb 25, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Amazon headcount in 2026

Amazon headcount in 2026

K 51.0K contracts
Will Amazon.com, Inc. report above 1500000 Employees (full-time and part-time; excludes contractors & temporary personnel) in 2026?Yes 88.5%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. report above 1525000 Employees (full-time and part-time; excludes contractors & temporary personnel) in 2026?Yes 82.5%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. report above 1550000 Employees (full-time and part-time; excludes contractors & temporary personnel) in 2026?Yes 76.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Mar 31, 2028 UTC
KalshiTech
Spotify headcount in 2026

Spotify headcount in 2026

K 363.14 contracts
Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 7100 full-time employees globally in 2026?Yes 82%
Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 7150 full-time employees globally in 2026?Yes 69%
Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 7200 full-time employees globally in 2026?Yes 54%
+5 moreNext deadline Mar 31, 2028 UTC
KalshiTech
Apple headcount in 2026

Apple headcount in 2026

K 11.0K contracts
Will Apple Inc. report above 164000 total full-time equivalent employees in 2026?Yes 92%
Will Apple Inc. report above 166000 total full-time equivalent employees in 2026?Yes 86%
Will Apple Inc. report above 168000 total full-time equivalent employees in 2026?Yes 68.5%
+3 moreNext deadline Mar 31, 2028 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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