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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

ChatGPT Outage by...?

ChatGPT Outage by...?
Vol

PM $565.02

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Events

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Markets

2

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is November 15 at 85.5%.

Polymarket

  1. November 1585.5%
  2. October 3159.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $565.02

Reported volume · provider units

2

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketTech
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?

PM $30.3K
Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?Yes 70.5%
Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?Yes 29.6%
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?Yes 0.8%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

PM $27.5K
ChatGPT Full Outage by November 30?Yes 19.5%
ChatGPT Full Outage by October 31?Yes 14.5%
2 mktsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
Grok (Web) Outage by...?

Grok (Web) Outage by...?

PM $4.5K
Grok (Web) Outage by October 31, 2026?Yes 37.5%
Grok (Web) Outage by November 30, 2026?Yes 35.5%
2 mktsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
ChatGPT Dots on the free plan by...?

ChatGPT Dots on the free plan by...?

PM $1.5K
Will ChatGPT Dots be available on the free plan by December 31, 2026?Yes 27.5%
Will ChatGPT Dots be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026?Yes 3.5%
2 mktsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiTech
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?

PM $5.66M · K 16.16M contracts

Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?

Kalshi: Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Anthropic)

Related contracts

PM Yes 91.5%Rules differK Yes 77%

Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of November 2026?

Kalshi: Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Anthropic)

Related contracts

PM Yes 80%Rules differK Yes 77%

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Kalshi: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? (Gemini)

Related contracts

PM Yes 78.3%Rules differK Yes 37.6%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

38 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiTech
Time's Person of the Year for 2026

Time's Person of the Year for 2026

K 1.88M contracts
Will Zohran Mamdani be Time Person of the Year in 2026?Yes 28.5%
Will Pope Leo XIV be Time Person of the Year in 2026?Yes 14.5%
Will Mark Carney be Time Person of the Year in 2026?Yes 12.5%
+39 moreNext deadline Dec 31, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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