Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?

Name: # of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$18.47K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?

Vol

$18.47K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $18.47K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.47K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Poly	65%
Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Poly	19%
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Poly	16%
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Poly	2%
Will there be exactly 1 ChatGPT outage in October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will there be fewer than 1 ChatGPT outage in October 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

65%

Top Probability

$18.47K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicat

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** # of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.

ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicat

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.

ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT ("

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.62)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be fewer than 1 ChatGPT outage in October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $404
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be exactly 1 ChatGPT outage in October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 64.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech