Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Name: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$8.11M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Vol

$8.11M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $8.11M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.11M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Poly	100%
Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Poly	97%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Poly	95%
Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Poly	87%
Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Poly	72%
Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Poly	54%
Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Poly	23%
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Poly	17%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Poly	7%
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$8.11M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution tim

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (80 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution tim

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.52M
* **Total Liquidity:** $18.2K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 412.68)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $335.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $6.53M
  DATA: [Yes: 7.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $65.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $15.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $585
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $253
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $183
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $209.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $359.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate