Name: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

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Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? | PredictPedia

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5 markets tracked

Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Poly	97%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Poly	97%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Poly	92%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Poly	42%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Poly	9%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (350 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution tim

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $34.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $12.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.77)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $6.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $9.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $11.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

349d 13h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

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Average Yes Price

67¢

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Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

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Events (1)

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Markets (5)

Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

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Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

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Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

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