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Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

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Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

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33 markets tracked

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (J.D. Vance)

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Single-Platform Markets(33)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (J.D. Vance)	Kalshi	78%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Ted Cruz)	Kalshi	71%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Marco Rubio)	Kalshi	62%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Ron DeSantis)	Kalshi	55%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Josh Hawley)	Kalshi	44%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Glenn Youngkin)	Kalshi	43%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Thomas Massie)	Kalshi	41%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Rand Paul)	Kalshi	39%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Kalshi	35%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Brian Kemp)	Kalshi	35%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (John McEntee)	Kalshi	32%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Kalshi	26%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Steve Bannon)	Kalshi	25%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Donald J. Trump Jr.)	Kalshi	25%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Tucker Carlson)	Kalshi	23%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Kalshi	23%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Kalshi	23%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Kalshi	21%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Matt Gaetz)	Kalshi	21%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Byron Donalds)	Kalshi	21%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Greg Abbott)	Kalshi	19%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Jeff Bezos)	Kalshi	19%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Nikki Haley)	Kalshi	18%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Pete Hegseth)	Kalshi	17%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Spencer Pratt)	Kalshi	16%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Erika Kirk)	Kalshi	15%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Gregory Bovino)	Kalshi	14%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Jared Kushner)	Kalshi	11%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Donald J. Trump)	Kalshi	11%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Elise Stefanik)	Kalshi	10%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Katie Britt)	Kalshi	10%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (John Thune)	Kalshi	6%
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Elon Musk)	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

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About This Event

For the 2028 election If X announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** For the 2028 election

If X announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Gregory Bovino announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Gregory Bovino)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (John McEntee)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Spencer Pratt)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Jeff Bezos)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Thomas Massie)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Jared Kushner)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Pete Hegseth)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Erika Kirk)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Steve Bannon)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Tucker Carlson)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Rand Paul)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Ted Cruz)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Matt Gaetz)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Katie Britt)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.8% (0.0%)]

### 16. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (John Thune)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.1% (0.0%)]

### 17. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Josh Hawley)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Elise Stefanik)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.7% (0.0%)]

### 19. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Elon Musk)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Brian Kemp)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Byron Donalds)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Vivek Ramaswamy)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Tulsi Gabbard)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Ron DeSantis)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Nikki Haley)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 28. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Marco Rubio)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 62.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.0% (0.0%)]

### 29. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Glenn Youngkin)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 30. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Greg Abbott)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 31. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Donald J. Trump Jr.)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 32. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (J.D. Vance)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 78.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.0% (0.0%)]

### 33. Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Donald J. Trump)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Volume$0.00

Markets33

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KALSHI

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (J.D. Vance)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.0¢No 22.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (J.D. Vance)

If J.D. Vance announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Ted Cruz)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Ted Cruz)

If Ted Cruz announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Marco Rubio)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.0¢No 38.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Marco Rubio)

If Marco Rubio announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Ron DeSantis)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 55.5¢No 44.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Ron DeSantis)

If Ron DeSantis announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Josh Hawley)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 44.5¢No 55.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Josh Hawley)

If Josh Hawley announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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27¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/QcFuYF" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?"></iframe>

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Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

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Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (J.D. Vance)

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Events (1)

Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Markets (33)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (J.D. Vance)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (J.D. Vance)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Ted Cruz)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Ted Cruz)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Marco Rubio)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Marco Rubio)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Ron DeSantis)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Ron DeSantis)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Josh Hawley)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Josh Hawley)

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Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (J.D. Vance)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (J.D. Vance)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (J.D. Vance)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Ted Cruz)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Ted Cruz)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Marco Rubio)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Marco Rubio)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Ron DeSantis)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Ron DeSantis)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Josh Hawley)

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? (Josh Hawley)

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