GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

CA-11 primary margin of victory?

Total Volume

$0.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

CA-11 primary margin of victory?

Vol

$0.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 10% and 15%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 10% and 15%?	Kalshi	100%
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 5% and 10%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be above 30%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 25% and 30%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 20% and 25%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 0% and 5%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 15% and 20%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Connie Chan in the 2026 CA-11 primary be above 0%?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On Jun 2, 2026 If the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary falls within X to Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Scott Wiener minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Scott Wiener if Scott Wiener wins, or the candidate/par

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** CA-11 primary margin of victory?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Jun 2, 2026

If the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary falls within X to Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Scott Wiener minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Scott Wiener if Scott Wiener wins, or the candidate/par

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 5% and 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be above 30%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 25% and 30%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 20% and 25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 0% and 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 15% and 20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 10% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Connie Chan in the 2026 CA-11 primary be above 0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

CA-11 primary margin of victory?

Volume$0.00

Markets8

8 of 8

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 10% and 15%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 10% and 15%?

If the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary falls within 10% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 5% and 10%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 5% and 10%?

If the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be above 30%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be above 30%?

If the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary falls within 30% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentag

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 25% and 30%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 25% and 30%?

If the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary falls within 25% to 30%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 20% and 25%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 20% and 25%?

If the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary falls within 20% to 25%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

13¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/QeAK5Q" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="CA-11 primary margin of victory?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

CA-11 primary margin of victory?

CA-11 primary margin of victory?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 10% and 15%?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

CA-11 primary margin of victory?

Markets (8)

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 10% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 10% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be above 30%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be above 30%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 25% and 30%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 25% and 30%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 20% and 25%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 20% and 25%?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 10% and 15%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

CA-11 primary margin of victory?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 10% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 10% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be above 30%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be above 30%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 25% and 30%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 25% and 30%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 20% and 25%?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in the 2026 CA-11 primary be between 20% and 25%?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget