Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This is a single-market event with two outcomes, Yes and No. The rule resolves Yes if Clavicular, "otherwise known as Braden Peters, is photographed or videotaped wearing a Yarmulke/Kippah" between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [1]. Otherwise it resolves No [1]. The resolution source is described as "a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets" [1]. The rule therefore depends on what credible reporting shows within that window, not on a general judgment about the person.

The provider lists an end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp corresponds to the 11:59 PM ET deadline in the rule, so the listed close and the stated rule point to the same moment. The end time is a contract close setting, not an announced event date.

Reading the snapshot

The saved observation was taken at 2026-10-19T03:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T04:11:35Z [1]. The provider showed the market as active at that observation [1]. These are snapshot values from that moment and should not be read as live prices.

At observation, the Yes outcome was priced at 0.455 and the No outcome at 0.545 [1]. These quoted prices are snapshots, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Because this sample includes the single saved market for this event, with no partial sampling flagged [1], the two outcomes give the full picture the provider recorded for this contract. The prices sum to 1.00, so the snapshot shows No priced above Yes, but the gap reflects only that moment.

Volume is not included in the evidence, so nothing can be said about depth or liquidity. This page does not compare the contract with other platforms or other events.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not show any resolution outcome, any reporting that has been published, or any change in price after the observation. It also does not explain why the prices stood where they did. The sample warning notes that the saved market list does not establish that the provider covers every possible outcome, though this event has only two outcomes in the record [1].

Readers should check the provider page for current status and prices, and should read the resolution wording closely, since the outcome depends on how "credible reporting" and "photographed or videotaped" are interpreted in practice.

References

1. Polymarket: Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.