Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

Each market in this set asks whether Clavicular, otherwise known as Braden Peters, will visit one listed country. The rules define a visit as Clavicular "physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country" [1]. Entering airspace alone does not count [1]. The window runs from market creation to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [1]. The provider's listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, which corresponds to that same deadline in UTC [1]. Resolution depends on "a consensus of credible reporting" [1], so the listed end time marks when the market closes. It is not an announced date for any visit.

For China, the rules say the term "includes all territory administered by the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions, excluding Taiwan" [1]. Readers comparing China with other entries should check this wording.

Reading the snapshot

The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z and retrieved at 2026-10-20T03:43:09.916Z [1]. The prices describe that observation only. The saved set includes all twelve markets from the provider event, and the sample is not flagged as partial [1]. The sample warning adds that inclusion does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world country [1].

Yes prices range from 0.0135 for North Korea to 0.355 for Colombia [1]. Colombia (0.355), Brazil (0.3035), and Japan (0.18) have the highest Yes prices in the set [1]. Each country is a separate yes or no contract, so these figures are not parts of one distribution. They should not be summed or averaged. Because a person could visit several listed countries, the Yes prices need not total one.

These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. A lower price on one contract does not indicate a lower chance of a visit. Differences in price between contracts do not by themselves indicate a trading opportunity.

What remains uncertain

The supplied evidence does not explain why any price stands where it does. It contains no current reporting on Clavicular's travel and no count of participants holding each position. Volume is not part of this review. Resolution will depend on credible reporting that is not included in the evidence. Readers should check the provider page and contract rules directly before relying on any figure, since these prices describe only the October 20, 2026 observation.

References

1. Polymarket: Which countries will Clavicular visit in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z.