Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 9:10 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 15?

Name: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 15?
End: 2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$41.84

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 15?

Vol

$41.84

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $41.84

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $41.84

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 15?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 15?	Poly	57%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on October 15?	Poly	25%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on October 15?	Poly	25%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 15?	Poly	25%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 15?	Poly	25%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on October 15?	Poly	24%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 15?	Poly	16%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 15?	Poly	11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 15?	Poly	10%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 15?	Poly	1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on October 15?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

57%

Top Probability

$41.84

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 15?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 15, 2026 (3 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

In the event that there is no data for the observation date

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $42
* **Total Liquidity:** $16.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $32
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate