Skip to main content
Market snapshot: . Prices may have changed since this snapshot.
Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027?

1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027?
Vol

PM $48.31

|
Events

1

|
Markets

1

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 22, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, Yes is priced at 45.5% on Polymarket.

Polymarket

  1. Yes45.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $48.31

Reported volume · provider units

1

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 22, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

About This Event

On October 19, 2026, Elon Musk announced that next year he would give one of his SpaceX shares to every child in America. (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/19/elon-musk-spacex-shares-giveaway-kids.html) This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one million children in the United States have received at least one share of SpaceX stock from Elon Musk by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "child" is any individual who is under 18 years of age and resides in the United States on the date the share is received. A child who turns 18 after receiving a share will continue to count. A child will be considered to have "received" a share once at least one whole share has been transferred to and is held by or for the benefit of that child, including in a brokerage account, custodial account (such as a UTMA/UGMA account), or trust in the child's name or for the child's benefit. Announcements, pledges, registrations, sign-ups, or allocations of shares that have not yet been transferred will not qualify. Fractional shares, tokenized shares, or other synthetic exposure to SpaceX will not qualify. Shares will be considered to be "from Elon Musk" if they are distributed by Elon Musk personally or by any person or legal entity acting on his behalf or at his direction, or funded by him for this purpose, including a trust, foundation, SpaceX itself, or another company or third-party administrator implementing the distribution. Shares distributed under a program that was not initiated or funded by Elon Musk will not qualify. The equity must be in Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX). Any class or type of equity will qualify, including preferred or common stock. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketEconomy
What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

PM $25.3K
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?Yes 47%
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?Yes 17%
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,126,000 and $1,137,000 on December 31?Yes 12.5%
+4 moreNext deadline Jan 11, 2027 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

PM $23.4K
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?Yes 59.6%
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,062,000 and $1,083,000 on December 31?Yes 25.7%
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,165,000 on December 31?Yes 6.4%
+4 moreNext deadline Jan 11, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiEconomy
Swiss National Bank rate decision in December

Swiss National Bank rate decision in December

PM $62.7K · K 31.5K contracts

Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the December meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Swiss National Bank maintain the current rate at the December monetary policy assessment?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 82%Rules differK Yes 79.5%

Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Swiss National Bank hike 1-25bps at the December monetary policy assessment?

Related contracts

PM Yes 17.8%Rules differK Yes 13%

Will the Swiss National Bank decrease the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Swiss National Bank cut 1-25bps at the December monetary policy assessment?

Related contracts

PM Yes 0.1%Rules differK Yes 1.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Dec 10, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiEconomy
Reserve Bank of India rate decision in December

Reserve Bank of India rate decision in December

PM $16.0K · K 16.4K contracts

Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of India hike 1-25bps at the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 78.5%Rules differK Yes 71.5%

Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the December meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of India maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 9%Rules differK Yes 18%

Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of India cut 1-25bps at the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 2.5%Rules differK Yes 1%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Dec 4, 2026 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
Largest Company end of December 2026?

Largest Company end of December 2026?

PM $8.75M
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes 76%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes 21.2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes 1.7%
+5 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiEconomy
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

PM $1.03M · K 11.6K contracts

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?

Kalshi: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 25.4%Rules differK Yes 50%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

1 saved comparisonNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

Trade This Market