$2.87M
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$2.87M
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8
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts,
Prediction markets currently show a roughly even split on whether Israel will conduct an air strike, drone strike, or missile strike on Lebanese territory on February 21, 2026. The "Yes" share trades at 53¢, implying traders see it as a coin flip, or a slightly better than 50/50 chance, that a strike will occur on that specific day. This reflects a market that sees the situation as highly volatile and unpredictable on a daily basis, where a major military action is always a real possibility.
The near-even odds stem from a tense, ongoing conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. Since the war in Gaza began in October 2023, there have been near-daily, but often contained, exchanges of fire across the Israel-Lebanon border. The market's uncertainty for this specific date captures two main forces. First, there is a real risk that these limited clashes could accidentally escalate into a broader strike. Second, both Israel and Hezbollah have signaled a desire to avoid a full-scale war, which creates pressure to keep strikes restrained. The probability isn't zero because a miscalculation or a retaliatory strike for a prior attack could easily trigger action on any given day.
The timeline for this market is very short, with resolution in about a week. The main factor to watch is the pattern of cross-border incidents in the days leading up to February 21. A major rocket barrage from Lebanon into Israel, or a high-profile Israeli strike in the preceding days, would significantly increase the probability of a strike on the 21st. Conversely, a noticeable period of calm or diplomatic statements from either side aiming to de-escalate could push the "No" probability higher. There are no scheduled diplomatic meetings or known deadlines that directly govern this specific date, making it a pure assessment of daily military risk.
Prediction markets have a mixed record on forecasting the timing of specific military events. They are generally good at aggregating intelligence about broader trends and probabilities over longer timeframes. However, predicting a binary yes/no for a single day in a volatile conflict zone is exceptionally difficult. The market is useful for showing the perceived baseline risk of escalation on any given day, but it should not be treated as a precise forecast. The high trading volume, over $2.8 million across related questions, suggests many people are weighing in with real money, which typically improves the signal over pure speculation. Still, unexpected, split-second decisions by military commanders can override all the aggregated analysis.
Prediction markets currently assign a 53% probability that Israel will conduct an aerial strike on Lebanese territory on February 21, 2026. This price, trading at 53¢ for "Yes" on Polymarket, indicates the market views the event as essentially a coin flip. With $2.8 million in total volume across related date markets, liquidity is high, suggesting significant trader conviction. A 53% chance means the consensus sees the situation as highly unstable, with daily military action balanced on a knife's edge.
The near-even odds directly reflect the sustained low-intensity conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Since the 2023 Gaza war began, cross-border fire has been near-daily, but markets are pricing a specific, escalated kinetic strike. The current price suggests traders believe a single-day escalation is as likely as not. Recent Israeli statements, like Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's February 18 warning that diplomacy has "very little time left," are likely baked into this price. Historical patterns also matter. Markets remember that similar tensions in 2006 erupted into full-scale war, creating a persistent baseline risk premium for any given day.
The primary catalyst for a major price shift will be diplomatic developments or a significant military incident. U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein is scheduled to visit Israel and Lebanon on February 24, three days after the market date. Any public breakdown in these talks before February 21 could send the "Yes" probability soaring. Conversely, a credible ceasefire announcement or a sustained 48-hour lull in fighting would likely crash the price. The market may also be sensitive to specific actions, like a Hezbollah attack causing Israeli casualties, which historically triggers immediate retaliation. Traders are effectively betting that the fragile status quo of tit-for-tat strikes holds for one more day.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the possibility of Israeli military strikes against Lebanese territory on a specific date. The market resolves based on whether Israel conducts aerial attacks using drones, missiles, or bombs that physically impact Lebanese soil during that 24-hour period in Israel Standard Time. This question exists within the tense regional context of ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group and political party that controls southern Lebanon. Since October 2023, cross-border exchanges of fire have occurred almost daily, marking the most sustained period of violence since the 2006 Lebanon War. The market reflects investor assessment of whether these skirmishes will escalate into a more significant Israeli offensive operation on a given day. International observers monitor the situation closely due to fears that a major Israeli incursion could trigger a wider regional war involving Iran and its proxies. The United States and European nations have engaged in diplomatic efforts to prevent such an escalation, but military preparations by both Israel and Hezbollah continue.
Israeli-Lebanese hostilities have occurred for decades, primarily centered on Israel's conflict with Hezbollah. The most significant direct war was in 2006, a 34-day conflict that began after Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid. That war killed approximately 1,200 Lebanese and 165 Israelis, displaced one million people, and ended with UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Resolution 1701 called for Hezbollah's disarmament south of the Litani River and the deployment of Lebanese Armed Forces and UN peacekeepers (UNIFIL) to the area, but these provisions were never fully implemented. Since 2006, the border has experienced periodic flare-ups, but the current period of sustained exchanges that began in October 2023 represents the most serious and prolonged violence since that war. The 2020 killing of Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh and the 2008 assassination of Hezbollah military chief Imad Mughniyah in Damascus, both attributed to Israel, also contributed to long-standing tensions. Israel has conducted numerous airstrikes in Lebanon over the years, including against suspected weapons shipments and infrastructure, but typically avoids claiming responsibility publicly.
A significant Israeli strike on Lebanon could trigger a full-scale regional war with profound humanitarian and economic consequences. Lebanon's economy is already in a state of collapse, with the World Bank describing it as one of the worst crises globally since the 1850s. A war would likely cause massive civilian casualties, destroy critical infrastructure, and create a new refugee crisis affecting neighboring countries and Europe. The conflict would disrupt shipping in the Eastern Mediterranean and potentially affect global energy markets, though Lebanon itself has minimal oil production. For Israel, a northern war would require diverting military resources from Gaza, stretch the capacity of its defense systems, and likely lead to significant rocket attacks on population centers, including Tel Aviv and Haifa. The political stability of both governments could be threatened by prolonged conflict, and international diplomatic relationships across the Middle East would be severely tested.
As of late 2024, cross-border attacks between Israel and Hezbollah continue daily, though at varying intensities. In recent weeks, Israeli airstrikes have targeted Hezbollah commanders deeper inside Lebanese territory, including in the Bekaa Valley. Hezbollah has responded with rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel, including military bases. US-mediated diplomatic talks continue, with proposals for Hezbollah to withdraw its forces 8-10 kilometers from the border, but no agreement has been reached. The Israeli military has announced it is in the final stages of approving operational plans for a potential offensive in Lebanon.
The Blue Line is the border demarcation between Israel and Lebanon established by the United Nations in 2000 after Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon. It is not an official international border but serves as the reference line for ceasefire agreements and is monitored by UN peacekeepers.
Yes, Israel invaded Lebanon in 1978 and again in 1982, occupying southern Lebanon until 2000. The 1982 invasion led to the creation of Hezbollah as a resistance movement. Israel also conducted a major military operation in 2006 after Hezbollah captured Israeli soldiers.
Hezbollah possesses an extensive arsenal including precision-guided missiles, anti-tank guided missiles, and drones. Israeli defense officials estimate Hezbollah has thousands of rockets that can reach Tel Aviv and other major population centers, as well as anti-ship missiles that threaten naval vessels.
Hezbollah began attacking Israeli positions on October 8, 2023, in what it calls 'support for Gaza' following Hamas's October 7 attack. This created a northern front that has diverted Israeli military resources and complicated Israel's strategic calculations about opening another major war theater.
Adopted in 2006, Resolution 1701 ended the Israel-Hezbollah war and called for Hezbollah's disarmament south of the Litani River, the deployment of Lebanese army forces to the border, and an expanded UN peacekeeping mission. Its incomplete implementation contributes to current tensions.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 47% |
| Poly | 47% |
| Poly | 46% |
| Poly | 46% |
| Poly | 46% |
| Poly | 46% |
| Poly | 44% |
| Poly | 1% |
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