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Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

Name: How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$300.09K

Events

Markets

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How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

Vol

$300.09K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $300.09K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $300.09K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	Poly	61%
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?	Poly	24%
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?	Poly	15%
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?	Poly	7%
Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

61%

Top Probability

$300.09K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, August 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (131 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution s"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $300.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.3K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 70.40)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $89.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $100.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $43.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $58.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience