$152.97K
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7
$152.97K
1
7
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Prediction markets estimate a roughly 19 in 20 chance that SpaceX will conduct 11 or more orbital launches in February 2026. This is an extremely high level of confidence from traders. The market is essentially treating a double-digit launch month as a near certainty, with the real question being how high above 11 the final count will go.
The high confidence stems from SpaceX's established launch cadence. In 2024, the company averaged over 10 launches per month, setting a global record. This pace is powered by two key factors. First, the workhorse Falcon 9 rocket is designed for rapid reuse, with some booster stages flying 20 or more times. Second, SpaceX has its own massive constellation of Starlink internet satellites to launch, which provides a reliable, internal customer base that fills its manifest alongside commercial and government missions.
The prediction for February 2026 assumes this operational rhythm not only continues but accelerates slightly. It reflects a belief that technical and logistical processes at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg Space Force Base will be smooth, with no major delays from weather or vehicle inspections.
The main factor to watch is the launch rate in the weeks leading up to February 2026. A series of successful launches in January would reinforce the high odds. Conversely, any significant launch scrub or standdown for a Falcon 9 investigation in late January could signal potential delays that might spill into February.
Specific dates are less important than the overall tempo. Watch for announcements from SpaceX confirming two launches in a single week, which is now routine, or even three. The company's public launch schedule, updated regularly on its website, will provide the clearest signal of whether it is on track to meet this forecast.
Prediction markets are generally reliable for forecasting outcomes based on steady, observable trends like corporate operational tempo. They have been accurate in similar "count-based" markets, such as those tracking rocket launch totals in a given year.
The main limitation here is the potential for unforeseen disruption. A launch failure or major technical issue with the Falcon 9 fleet would immediately and drastically change the forecast. These markets are good at modeling a "business as usual" scenario, but they cannot predict random accidents or anomalies. The high probability reflects the strong belief that such a disruptive event is unlikely in that specific one-month window.
Prediction markets on Polymarket show high confidence that SpaceX will execute an exceptionally busy launch schedule in February 2026. The leading market, asking if there will be "11 or more launches," is trading at 94 cents, implying a 94% probability. This price indicates traders see an 11+ launch month as nearly certain. Supporting markets show probabilities of 78% for 12+ launches and 58% for 13+ launches. The volume of $213,000 across these contracts suggests serious trader conviction, not just speculative noise.
Two primary factors justify this extreme market confidence. First, SpaceX's demonstrated launch cadence sets a clear precedent. The company achieved a record 14 launches in a single month in late 2025, proving the technical and logistical capability for such a pace. Second, the composition of the fleet enables this tempo. The majority of launches are now conducted by the reusable Falcon 9, with occasional Falcon Heavy or Starship missions. With multiple operational pads at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, and a standardized process, back-to-back launches within days are routine. The market is pricing in the continuation of an established operational rhythm, not a speculative surge.
The 7-day resolution window means weather and last-minute technical scrubs are the only real threats to the current high-probability outlook. A major anomaly, like a launch failure or a ground system issue, could cascade and delay multiple subsequent missions. However, SpaceX's history of rapid recovery from scrubs makes a single weather delay unlikely to derail the entire month's tally. The more plausible scenario that could shift odds is if early-week launches are delayed, compressing the schedule and increasing risk for missions planned for the final days of February. Traders will watch the first week's execution closely.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the total number of rocket launches conducted by SpaceX during the 2026 calendar year. SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk in 2002, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation company. The company operates several launch vehicle families, primarily the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, and is developing the fully reusable Starship system. The annual launch cadence has become a key metric for assessing the company's operational tempo, commercial success, and progress toward its stated goal of making humanity multiplanetary. Tracking this number provides insight into the health of the global launch industry, satellite deployment rates for constellations like Starlink, and the overall expansion of access to space. Interest in predicting the 2026 launch total stems from SpaceX's dramatic increase in launch frequency over the past decade. The company has transformed from a fledgling startup to the world's most active launch provider, accounting for the majority of global orbital launches in recent years. This cadence supports critical infrastructure, including resupply missions to the International Space Station for NASA and the deployment of thousands of satellites for its Starlink broadband internet constellation. The launch rate is influenced by factors such as rocket production capacity, launch pad availability, payload readiness, regulatory approvals from the Federal Aviation Administration, and weather conditions at launch sites in Florida, California, and Texas. Recent developments suggest the launch cadence will continue to climb. SpaceX achieved a record 96 successful orbital launches in 2023, followed by 98 in 2024. The company is targeting approximately 144 launches in 2025, indicating a planned acceleration. This growth is largely driven by the expanding Starlink constellation, which requires frequent launches to add new satellites and replenish older ones. Commercial contracts with other satellite operators and government missions for NASA and the U.S. Space Force also contribute to the manifest. The potential introduction of the Starship vehicle into regular operational service could further increase capacity, though its impact on the 2026 total remains uncertain. People follow this metric because it serves as a tangible measure of SpaceX's execution capability and the commercialization of space. Investors, industry analysts, competitors, and space enthusiasts all monitor launch rates. A higher-than-predicted number could signal stronger demand or improved operational efficiency, while a lower number might indicate technical setbacks, supply chain issues, or regulatory delays. The resolution source for this market is the official SpaceX launches webpage, which chronologically lists each mission, providing a transparent and authoritative record.
SpaceX's launch history demonstrates a trajectory of exponential growth, setting the context for 2026 projections. The company's first successful orbital launch, of the Falcon 1, did not occur until 2008. Annual launch counts remained in the single digits for years, with SpaceX achieving 6 launches in 2015. A significant turning point came with the introduction of the reusability of the Falcon 9's first stage. The first successful landing occurred in December 2015, and the first re-flight of a landed booster happened in March 2017. This technological breakthrough began to reduce costs and increase potential turnaround times. The cadence began a steep climb in 2020 with 26 launches, driven by the start of dedicated Starlink deployment missions. The year 2021 saw 31 launches, 2022 had 61, and 2023 set a new record at 96. The 98 launches in 2024 confirmed the company's ability to sustain a pace of nearly two launches per week on average. This historical acceleration is not linear but follows an S-curve, influenced by the ramp-up of booster production, the construction of additional launch infrastructure like the Starship pad at LC-39A, and the operational maturity of drone ship and ground-based recovery operations. Past performance, particularly the year-over-year increases from 2020 onward, provides the primary data set for forecasting future rates.
The number of SpaceX launches in a given year is a leading indicator for the entire New Space economy. A high launch cadence lowers the cost of access to orbit for all customers, enabling new business models in Earth observation, communications, and technology demonstration. It directly supports the growth of the Starlink constellation, which provides internet service to remote and underserved regions globally, with significant geopolitical and economic implications. The revenue from these launches funds SpaceX's more ambitious and costly development programs, primarily Starship. For the United States, a high launch rate reinforces national security and economic leadership in space. It ensures reliable access to orbit for Department of Defense and intelligence community payloads, reducing dependence on foreign launch providers. It also creates thousands of high-tech manufacturing and engineering jobs. Conversely, a slowdown could signal broader supply chain problems, regulatory hurdles, or technical issues that would ripple through the global satellite industry, potentially delaying scientific missions, commercial deployments, and infrastructure projects in low Earth orbit.
As of late 2024, SpaceX is executing launches at a record pace, having completed 98 missions for the year. The company is actively upgrading its infrastructure to support its 144-launch target for 2025. This includes modifications to launch pads at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and Kennedy Space Center in Florida, and expansion of facilities at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Development of the Starship system continues in Texas, with iterative test flights. The most recent Starship test in 2024 achieved several objectives but ended with the vehicle breaking up during re-entry. The FAA is overseeing an investigation into that mishap, which must be closed before the next Starship launch can be licensed. The pace of this investigation and subsequent licensing will influence Starship's potential contribution to the 2026 manifest.
The market resolves based on launches listed on the official SpaceX launches webpage. This includes all orbital launch attempts by SpaceX vehicles (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and potentially Starship) within the calendar year, regardless of mission type or customer. Suborbital test flights, like early Starship prototypes, are not included unless they achieve orbit.
SpaceX operates from three primary orbital launch sites: Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and Kennedy Space Center in Florida, Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, and the Starbase facility in Boca Chica, Texas. Most launches, particularly those for Starlink and geostationary satellites, originate from Florida.
The high rate is enabled by the reusability of the Falcon 9 first stage and payload fairings, which allows rapid refurbishment and re-flight. Standardized processes, a high-volume manufacturing pipeline for new rockets, multiple active launch pads, and a large fleet of drone ships for offshore landings all contribute to the fast tempo.
Yes, but its impact is uncertain. If Starship becomes operational for satellite deployment missions in 2026, each Starship launch would count as one launch. However, because one Starship can carry a payload mass equivalent to many Falcon 9 launches, it might eventually reduce the total number of launches needed for a given payload mass, potentially lowering the count in future years.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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