GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

When will Anthropic release the next Mythos-Class model?

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When will Anthropic release the next Mythos-Class model?

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Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Nov 1, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	85%
Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	77%
Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Sep 1, 2026?	Kalshi	27%
Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Aug 1, 2026?	Kalshi	12%

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85%

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About This Event

next Mythos-Class model If Anthropic releases a model under Anthropic's Mythos tier — including models branded "Mythos" or "Fable" - excluding Claude Fable 5, released June 9, 2026, before X 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will Anthropic release the next Mythos-Class model?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** next Mythos-Class model

If Anthropic releases a model under Anthropic's Mythos tier — including models branded "Mythos" or "Fable" - excluding Claude Fable 5, released June 9, 2026, before X 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Anthropic releases a model under Anthropic's Mythos tier — including models branded "Mythos" or "Fable" - excluding Claude Fable 5 (released June 9, 2026) before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Sep 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Aug 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

When will Anthropic release the next Mythos-Class model?

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KALSHI

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Nov 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.5¢No 15.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Nov 1, 2026?

If Anthropic releases a model under Anthropic's Mythos tier — including models branded "Mythos" or "Fable" - excluding Claude Fable 5 (released June 9, 2026) before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting

KALSHI

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Oct 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 76.5¢No 23.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Oct 1, 2026?

If Anthropic releases a model under Anthropic's Mythos tier — including models branded "Mythos" or "Fable" - excluding Claude Fable 5 (released June 9, 2026) before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting

KALSHI

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Sep 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 27.0¢No 73.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Sep 1, 2026?

If Anthropic releases a model under Anthropic's Mythos tier — including models branded "Mythos" or "Fable" - excluding Claude Fable 5 (released June 9, 2026) before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting

KALSHI

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Aug 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Aug 1, 2026?

If Anthropic releases a model under Anthropic's Mythos tier — including models branded "Mythos" or "Fable" - excluding Claude Fable 5 (released June 9, 2026) before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting

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Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Nov 1, 2026?

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Events (1)

When will Anthropic release the next Mythos-Class model?

Markets (4)

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Nov 1, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Nov 1, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Oct 1, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Oct 1, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Sep 1, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Sep 1, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Aug 1, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Aug 1, 2026?

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Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Nov 1, 2026?

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When will Anthropic release the next Mythos-Class model?

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Nov 1, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Nov 1, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Oct 1, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Oct 1, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Sep 1, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Sep 1, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Aug 1, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Aug 1, 2026?

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