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Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Trump's approval rating on Jul 10, 2026?

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Trump's approval rating on Jul 10, 2026?

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8 markets tracked

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics?	Kalshi	61%
Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics?	Kalshi	27%
Will the President's approval rating be between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?	Kalshi	9%
Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics?	Kalshi	8%
Will the President's approval rating be above 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?	Kalshi	3%
Will the President's approval rating be between 39.9 and 40.1 according to RealClearPolitics?	Kalshi	1%
Will the President's approval rating be between 39.6 and 39.8 according to RealClearPolitics?	Kalshi	1%
Will the President's approval rating be below 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics?	Kalshi	1%

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About This Event

On Jul 10, 2026 If the President's approval rating is X Y at 11:00 AM ET on July 10, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 10, 2026.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Trump's approval rating on Jul 10, 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Jul 10, 2026

If the President's approval rating is X Y at 11:00 AM ET on July 10, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 10, 2026.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the President's approval rating is above 41.3% at 11:00 AM ET on July 10, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 10, 2026."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the President's approval rating be above 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the President's approval rating be between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the President's approval rating be between 39.9 and 40.1 according to RealClearPolitics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the President's approval rating be between 39.6 and 39.8 according to RealClearPolitics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the President's approval rating be below 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Trump's approval rating on Jul 10, 2026?

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KALSHI

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.0¢No 39.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics?

If the President's approval rating is between 40.8 and 41.0% at 11:00 AM ET on July 10, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 10, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 26.5¢No 73.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics?

If the President's approval rating is between 40.5 and 40.7% at 11:00 AM ET on July 10, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 10, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the President's approval rating be between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President's approval rating be between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?

If the President's approval rating is between 41.1 and 41.3% at 11:00 AM ET on July 10, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 10, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics?

If the President's approval rating is between 40.2 and 40.4% at 11:00 AM ET on July 10, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 10, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the President's approval rating be above 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President's approval rating be above 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?

If the President's approval rating is above 41.3% at 11:00 AM ET on July 10, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on July 10, 2026.

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13¢

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Trump's approval rating on Jul 10, 2026?

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Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Trump's approval rating on Jul 10, 2026?

Markets (8)

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be above 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be above 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Trump's approval rating on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be above 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be above 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?

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