$1.94K
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$1.94K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating po
Prediction markets currently assign a 70% probability that Donald Trump's approval rating will exceed 43% at least once between December 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026. This price, found exclusively on Kalshi with moderate trading volume, indicates the consensus views this outcome as likely. A 70% chance translates to an implied confidence level where the market sees it as a probable scenario, but significant uncertainty remains about the political climate over that 13-month window.
The primary factor supporting the 70% probability is historical precedent. During his first term, Trump's approval rating, as aggregated by major pollsters, rarely dipped below 40% and frequently reached the mid-40s, even during periods of high political contention. The market is likely pricing in a similar stability in his base support. Secondly, the specific timeframe is crucial. The period spans the first year of a potential second Trump term, a phase typically marked by a "honeymoon" period where new or returning presidents often see a modest approval bump. Market participants may be anticipating this cyclical trend to push his rating above the 43% threshold.
The most significant risk to the current odds is the volatile nature of political news cycles. A major economic downturn, a foreign policy crisis, or significant legislative failures during 2025-2026 could suppress approval ratings and keep them anchored below 43%. Conversely, odds could increase further if early policy wins or a strong economic outlook are perceived. The market's reliance on the VoteHub aggregator also introduces a specific data source risk. Any changes in polling methodology or frequency from major pollsters included in their model could affect the reported rating independently of genuine public opinion shifts. The market will close early if data for the period is released, making ongoing political developments up to late 2025 the key continuous catalyst.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on the potential peak approval rating of former President Donald Trump during a specific 13-month period from December 11, 2025, to December 31, 2026. The market resolves based on whether Trump's approval rating, as measured by the polling aggregator VoteHub, surpasses a predetermined threshold at any point during this timeframe. This period is significant as it encompasses the final year of the 2026 midterm election cycle and potentially the early stages of the 2028 presidential campaign, making it a critical barometer of Trump's political standing. Interest in this topic stems from its implications for the Republican Party's direction, Trump's influence on national politics, and the potential for a 2024 election rematch or a new political era. Analysts are watching whether Trump can maintain or expand his base beyond the 46.8% of the popular vote he received in 2020, or if his approval will be constrained by ongoing legal challenges and partisan polarization. The market's structure, which closes early if data is released, adds a layer of anticipation regarding the timing and transparency of polling during this politically charged period.
Donald Trump's approval ratings have exhibited remarkable stability within a historically narrow band compared to previous presidents. Throughout his four-year term from January 2017 to January 2021, his Gallup approval rating never exceeded 49% and never fell below 34%, averaging approximately 41%. This range was significantly tighter than most modern presidents, reflecting intense partisan polarization where his support became largely fixed among Republican voters. The highest recorded approval spike during his presidency occurred in March 2020, reaching 49% in some polls at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic during a 'rally around the flag' effect, though this quickly receded. Post-presidency, Trump's standing among Republicans has remained exceptionally strong, with consistent approval above 80% in party-specific polls, but his overall national approval has typically lingered in the low 40s, mirroring his 2020 election vote share. The historical precedent suggests that former presidents rarely see significant approval rating increases years after leaving office unless they re-enter the political arena successfully, as with Grover Cleveland's 1892 re-election following his first term.
Trump's approval rating during this period serves as a leading indicator for the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race. A rating consistently above 45% would signal durable national appeal that could help Republican candidates nationwide, while a rating stuck below 42% might indicate diminishing influence. For financial markets, higher approval correlates with increased likelihood of Trump-aligned policies on regulation, trade, and taxation, affecting sector-specific investments. Socially, sustained high approval would reinforce the political polarization that has characterized American politics since 2016, influencing everything from media consumption patterns to community relations. The downstream consequences include potential primary challenges to Republican incumbents deemed insufficiently loyal, shifts in campaign fundraising priorities, and altered international perceptions of American political stability. For prediction markets specifically, this topic represents a test of whether crowdsourced wisdom can anticipate rare polling outliers in an era of entrenched partisan attitudes.
As of late 2023, Donald Trump maintains a national approval rating in the low 40s across most aggregators, with strong support among Republicans but limited appeal to independents and Democrats. He has announced his candidacy for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination and leads early primary polls by substantial margins. Multiple ongoing legal proceedings, including investigations into his handling of classified documents and actions surrounding the 2020 election, create uncertainty about how these cases might affect his public standing. The Republican Party remains divided between Trump loyalists and factions seeking alternative leadership, though no potential challenger has consistently polled above 30% against him in primary matchups.
Donald Trump's highest approval rating during his presidency was 49%, recorded by Gallup in March 2020 during the initial response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This 'rally around the flag' effect proved temporary, with his rating returning to the low 40s within months. No other modern president had a lower maximum approval rating during their term.
VoteHub calculates approval ratings by aggregating and weighting multiple national polls from established organizations like Gallup, Pew Research Center, and YouGov. Their methodology accounts for sample size, recency, and historical accuracy of each pollster. The result is a rolling average that smooths out individual poll fluctuations to provide a more stable measure of public sentiment.
While possible, historical patterns suggest Trump reaching above 50% approval would require significant expansion beyond his established base. His presidency never reached 50% approval, and post-presidency ratings for former commanders-in-chief typically decline rather than increase. Such an achievement would likely require either major political realignment or extraordinary circumstances creating bipartisan appeal.
Midterm elections typically serve as referendums on the sitting president's party, not directly on former presidents. However, if Trump remains the dominant Republican figure during the 2026 midterms, the results could influence perceptions of his political strength. Strong Republican performance might boost his approval as a party leader, while losses could diminish his standing.
The prediction market specifies that it will close early if polling data for the specified period is released. If VoteHub ceases operations or stops publishing Trump approval ratings, the market would likely resolve based on the last available data or according to predetermined contingency rules established by the market platform. Participants should review the specific market documentation for resolution protocols.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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