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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

Name: How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.53K

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

Vol

$4.53K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.53K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.53K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Trump's approval rating hit 45% in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump's approval rating hit 45% in 2026?	Poly	50%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 48% in 2026?	Poly	33%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 47% in 2026?	Poly	25%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026?	Poly	14%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026?	Poly	11%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 49% in 2026?	Poly	10%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 46% in 2026?	Poly	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$4.53K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating po

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (168 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating po

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finali"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.32)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump's approval rating hit 48% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $353
  DATA: [Yes: 33.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump's approval rating hit 47% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $523
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump's approval rating hit 46% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $885
  DATA: [Yes: 9.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump's approval rating hit 45% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.1% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $103
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump's approval rating hit 49% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics