This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Name: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$68.00M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Vol

$68.00M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $68.00M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $68.00M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Poly	39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Poly	23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Poly	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

39%

Top Probability

$68.00M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicit

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicit

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United St"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.93M
* **Total Liquidity:** $638.4K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 23.39)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $9.92M
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $3.35M
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 15, 2026): Vol $1.66M
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics