$4.77M
1
3
$4.77M
1
3
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicit
Prediction markets assign a 46% probability to the United States and Iran reaching a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026. This price, translating to roughly even odds, signals a market deeply divided on the outcome. With $4.8 million in total volume, it is a highly liquid and actively traded contract, reflecting significant interest and capital behind both the "Yes" and "No" positions. The near-50% valuation suggests traders see the event as a genuine toss-up, with no clear consensus on diplomatic direction over the next two years.
Two primary forces are balancing the market near its midpoint. First, a history of failed negotiations and deep mutual distrust weighs on the "No" side. The collapse of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), subsequent U.S. sanctions, and ongoing proxy conflicts establish a pattern of escalation that is difficult to reverse. Second, countervailing pressure for the "Yes" side comes from regional realignment. Indirect talks between Washington and Tehran, often mediated by Oman or Qatar, continue to occur. These focus on de-escalation and potentially reviving nuclear constraints, which some analysts view as a necessary precursor to any broader peace framework.
The market's equilibrium is fragile and sensitive to specific political events. The 2024 U.S. presidential election is the most immediate catalyst. A second Trump administration would likely harden U.S. policy, pushing odds lower, while a second Biden term could renew diplomatic outreach, potentially increasing them. A more dramatic shift would follow any direct military confrontation, which would crash the "Yes" probability. Conversely, a verifiable and mutual freeze on nuclear advancement paired with a pause in regional proxy attacks could cause the market to price in a higher chance of a deal. The next major inflection point will be the policy direction set by the incoming U.S. administration in January 2025.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market addresses whether the United States and Iran will reach a permanent peace agreement by a specified date. A permanent peace deal is defined as any formal agreement that explicitly declares an end to military hostilities between the two nations or uses equivalent language signaling a lasting cessation of conflict. This topic sits at the intersection of nuclear non-proliferation, Middle Eastern geopolitics, and U.S. foreign policy. The core dispute centers on Iran's nuclear program and its regional activities, which the U.S. and its allies view as destabilizing. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, was the last major diplomatic framework, but it collapsed after the U.S. withdrawal in 2018. Since then, relations have been characterized by sanctions, proxy conflicts, and stalled negotiations. Interest in this market stems from the high stakes involved, including global energy security, regional stability, and the potential for direct military confrontation. Observers monitor diplomatic statements, indirect talks, and actions by both governments for signals of a breakthrough.
U.S.-Iran relations have been hostile since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which overthrew the U.S.-backed Shah and led to the seizure of the American embassy in Tehran. The two countries have had no formal diplomatic relations for over four decades. A major turning point was the 2015 JCPOA, negotiated under the Obama administration. The agreement lifted international sanctions on Iran in exchange for strict, verifiable limits on its nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) repeatedly certified Iranian compliance until 2019. In May 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the deal and reimposed severe economic sanctions under a 'maximum pressure' campaign. Iran responded by gradually exceeding the deal's nuclear limits, increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium and the sophistication of its centrifuges. Several incidents brought the countries to the brink of direct conflict, including the U.S. drone strike that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 and Iranian missile strikes on U.S. forces in Iraq. This history of broken agreements and escalation forms the backdrop for any discussion of a permanent peace deal.
A permanent peace deal would have profound implications for global security and economics. It could significantly reduce the risk of a major war in the Middle East, a region through which about 20% of the world's oil shipments pass. Such a conflict could disrupt global energy supplies and trigger a severe economic crisis. Politically, an agreement could reshape alliances in the Middle East, potentially easing tensions between Iran and U.S. partners like Israel and Saudi Arabia, or it could further strain those relationships if they perceive the deal as inadequate. Domestically in the U.S., a deal would likely face intense political scrutiny, affecting congressional dynamics and future elections. For Iran, sanctions relief could provide a major boost to its struggling economy, affecting the livelihoods of its 85 million citizens. The outcome also directly impacts non-proliferation efforts worldwide, testing the international community's ability to manage nuclear threats through diplomacy.
As of early 2024, diplomatic efforts to restore the nuclear deal are effectively stalled. The last round of indirect talks in Doha concluded in August 2022 without progress. Iran has continued to expand its nuclear program while demanding guarantees that a future U.S. administration will not abandon the deal again. The U.S. has tightened sanctions enforcement and focused on building a regional military deterrent with allies. Tensions have increased due to Iran's support for groups attacking shipping in the Red Sea and U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq. In January 2024, the U.S. and Iran conducted a prisoner swap and the U.S. unfroze $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue, but both sides described this as a separate humanitarian issue, not a step toward broader negotiations.
The Iran nuclear deal, formally the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was a 2015 agreement between Iran and world powers. It limited Iran's nuclear program in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. The U.S. withdrew from the deal in 2018 under President Trump.
President Trump argued the deal did not permanently prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and failed to address Iran's ballistic missile program and regional activities. He reinstated U.S. sanctions as part of a 'maximum pressure' campaign against Iran.
Key obstacles include Iran's demand for guarantees against future U.S. withdrawals, U.S. concerns over Iran's advanced centrifuges and uranium stockpile, and disagreements over the scope of sanctions relief. Iran's regional military activities and support for proxies also complicate negotiations.
The IAEA assesses that Iran has enough 60% enriched uranium to produce multiple nuclear weapons if further enriched to 90%. Experts estimate Iran's 'breakout time'—the time needed to produce one bomb's worth of weapons-grade uranium—is now just a few weeks, down from over a year under the JCPOA.
Without a deal, Iran will likely continue advancing its nuclear program, increasing the risk of military confrontation. The U.S. and its allies would maintain sanctions and potentially increase covert actions. Regional tensions could escalate, affecting global oil markets and security.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
3 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 46% |
| Poly | 31% |
| Poly | 19% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/S7dRXf" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?"></iframe>