Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Core PCE MoM - September 2026

Name: Core PCE MoM - September 2026
End: 2026-10-29T13:30:00.000Z

Total Volume

$12.09K

Events

Markets

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Core PCE MoM - September 2026

Vol

$12.09K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $12.09K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.09K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in September?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in September?	Poly	36%
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?	Poly	29%
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in September?	Poly	12%
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.1% in September?	Poly	8%
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.5% or more in September?	Poly	4%
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.0% in September?	Poly	3%
Will Core PCE MoM be -0.1% or less in September?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

Top Probability

$12.09K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending September 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Person

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Core PCE MoM - September 2026
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 29, 2026 (18 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending September 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Person

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending September 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $12.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.96)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Core PCE MoM be -0.1% or less in September?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $244
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Core PCE MoM be 0.0% in September?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $488
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Core PCE MoM be 0.1% in September?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in September?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in September?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $647
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Core PCE MoM be 0.5% or more in September?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $187
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy