Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will be a part of the next government of Saxony-Anhalt?

Total Volume

$9.73K

Events

Markets

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Who will be a part of the next government of Saxony-Anhalt?

Vol

$9.73K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $9.73K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.73K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will AfD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will AfD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?	Kalshi	51%
Will BSW be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?	Kalshi	18%
Will SPD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?	Kalshi	14%
Will CDU be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?	Kalshi	13%
Will Greens be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?	Kalshi	12%
Will Die Linke be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?	Kalshi	8%
Will FDP be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$9.73K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 15, 2027 If a coalition that includes X make up the next elected ruling government of Saxony-Anhalt before Jan 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable, in the new government. This evaluation s

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be a part of the next government of Saxony-Anhalt?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 15, 2027

If a coalition that includes X make up the next elected ruling government of Saxony-Anhalt before Jan 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable, in the new government. This evaluation s

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a coalition that includes SPD make up the next elected ruling government of Saxony-Anhalt before Jan 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.

A party is considered to be part of government if one or"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will SPD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Die Linke be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Greens be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will FDP be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $129
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will CDU be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will BSW be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will AfD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will be a part of the next government of Saxony-Anhalt?

Volume$9.73K

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will AfD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will AfD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

If a coalition that includes AfD make up the next elected ruling government of Saxony-Anhalt before Jan 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or

KALSHI

Will BSW be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.0¢No 82.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will BSW be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

If a coalition that includes BSW make up the next elected ruling government of Saxony-Anhalt before Jan 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or

KALSHI

Will SPD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will SPD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

If a coalition that includes SPD make up the next elected ruling government of Saxony-Anhalt before Jan 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or

KALSHI

Will CDU be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will CDU be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

If a coalition that includes CDU make up the next elected ruling government of Saxony-Anhalt before Jan 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or

KALSHI

Will Greens be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Greens be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

If a coalition that includes Greens make up the next elected ruling government of Saxony-Anhalt before Jan 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one

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17¢

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Who will be a part of the next government of Saxony-Anhalt?

Who will be a part of the next government of Saxony-Anhalt?

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Will AfD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Who will be a part of the next government of Saxony-Anhalt?

Markets (7)

Will AfD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will AfD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will BSW be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will BSW be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will SPD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will SPD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will CDU be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will CDU be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will Greens be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will Greens be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

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Will AfD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will be a part of the next government of Saxony-Anhalt?

Will AfD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will AfD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will BSW be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will BSW be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will SPD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will SPD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will CDU be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will CDU be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will Greens be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

Will Greens be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?

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