Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand?

Total Volume

$798.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand?

Vol

$798.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $798.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $798.00

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Labour be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Labour be a part of the next government in New Zealand?	Kalshi	61%
Will Greens be a part of the next government in New Zealand?	Kalshi	58%
Will National be a part of the next government in New Zealand?	Kalshi	54%
Will New Zealand First be a part of the next government in New Zealand?	Kalshi	50%
Will ACT be a part of the next government in New Zealand?	Kalshi	45%
Will Te Pāti Māori be a part of the next government in New Zealand?	Kalshi	34%
Will Opportunity be a part of the next government in New Zealand?	Kalshi	26%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

61%

Top Probability

$798.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Mar 15, 2027 If a coalition that includes X makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable, in the new government. This evaluation sh

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Mar 15, 2027

If a coalition that includes X makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable, in the new government. This evaluation sh

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a coalition that includes Te Pāti Māori makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.

A party is considered to be part of government "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $798
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Te Pāti Māori be a part of the next government in New Zealand?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $56
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Opportunity be a part of the next government in New Zealand?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will New Zealand First be a part of the next government in New Zealand?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $148
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will National be a part of the next government in New Zealand?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $187
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Labour be a part of the next government in New Zealand?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $196
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Greens be a part of the next government in New Zealand?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $201
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will ACT be a part of the next government in New Zealand?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 15, 2027): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand?

Volume$798.00

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will Labour be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.0¢No 39.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Labour be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

If a coalition that includes Labour makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one

KALSHI

Will Greens be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 58.0¢No 42.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Greens be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

If a coalition that includes Greens makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one

KALSHI

Will National be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 54.5¢No 45.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will National be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

If a coalition that includes National makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if on

KALSHI

Will New Zealand First be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will New Zealand First be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

If a coalition that includes New Zealand First makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of governm

KALSHI

Will ACT be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 45.5¢No 54.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will ACT be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

If a coalition that includes ACT makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or

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47¢

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Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand?

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Will Labour be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand?

Markets (7)

Will Labour be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will Labour be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will Greens be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will Greens be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will National be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will National be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will New Zealand First be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will New Zealand First be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will ACT be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will ACT be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

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Will Labour be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand?

Will Labour be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will Labour be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will Greens be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will Greens be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will National be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will National be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will New Zealand First be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will New Zealand First be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will ACT be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

Will ACT be a part of the next government in New Zealand?

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