BNB Up or Down - October 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract is titled "BNB Up or Down - October 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET" and is listed in the Crypto category on Polymarket [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T07:00:00.000Z [1], which corresponds to 3:00 AM ET on October 20. Because the rules tie resolution to a specific Chainlink feed, a comparison with a contract on another platform or another price feed could resolve differently even if the titles look similar.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z, and the application retrieved the saved record at 2026-10-19T09:22:07.240Z [1]. At observation, the provider status was active. The snapshot shows "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are quoted prices from one moment, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two outcomes sum to 1.00 in this snapshot, but a reader should not treat the 0.505 figure as a confirmed chance of an Up result.
The sample covers one market in one saved event, with no partial sampling flag [1]. The supplied evidence does not include volume, liquidity, or trader counts, so this snapshot says nothing about how deep or active the market is. The prices also do not explain why the market sits near even odds.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot is from earlier on October 19, 2026, and it does not show prices at the time of reading. The evidence does not report any later prices, any trading activity, or whether the market has changed status since observation.
The sample includes all saved markets for this event, but that does not establish that every possible outcome is listed [1]. Here the event has only the Up and Down outcomes, so no omitted outcome is relevant to this comparison. The evidence also does not include the actual resolution, which will depend on the Chainlink TWAP data once the window closes.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Up or Down contract on the BNB price, titled BNB Up or Down - October 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET. The contract asks whether BNB will end its 15-minute window at or above where it started, using a time-weighted average price rather than a single trade. The contract is listed on Polymarket [1]. The settlement rule compares two values. The first is the price at the beginning of the time range named in the title. The second is the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over that same range. If the TWAP is greater than or equal to the starting price, the market resolves to Up. If it is lower, the market resolves to Down [1]. The rules specify the data source precisely. Resolution uses the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, which is a 60-second TWAP stream, rather than other price feeds or spot markets. The source states that the contract concerns only the price according to that Chainlink stream for the BNB/USD pair [1]. The contract data lists an end time of 2026-10-20T07:00:00.000Z [1]. That listed end time is the close time recorded in the contract data. It is not a separate announcement, and the contract's resolution outcome is not given in the supplied material.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB's price over a single short window, as defined by a specific Chainlink TWAP stream rather than by a headline price or a particular exchange. Because the average is taken across the window, a brief spike or drop at one moment does not decide the result on its own. The result depends on whether the average across the 15 minutes is at or above the price at the start of the window [1]. The rule about the data source matters for interpreting the contract. Prices on other platforms or spot markets are not used for settlement, so a reader comparing the contract with another BNB price should check the Chainlink stream named in the rules [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this contract decide between Up and Down?
It resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1].
Which price source is used for settlement?
The rules specify the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The contract states that other sources and spot markets are not used [1].
What is the listed end time of the contract?
The contract data lists an end time of 2026-10-20T07:00:00.000Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.